How do the voters of Vox and Aliança Catalana come together?

BarcelonaOne of the conclusions of the latest barometer from the Center for Opinion Studies (CEO), published this Monday, is that voters for Aliança Catalana and Vox "are becoming increasingly similar," states the organization's director, Joan Rodríguez Teruel. In fact, one of the trends highlighted by this latest survey is that voters for Ignacio Garriga's party are increasingly drawn to Silvia Orriols's party. The convergence between the two parties has long been evident in the Catalan Parliament, where both avoid vetoing each other's initiatives, for example, those of a xenophobic nature. Now, the CEO's figures confirm this trend.

The trend was already evident in the March barometer, which indicated a shift of Vox voters towards Aliança Catalana. At that time, the figure was 4%, although the PP was still the main party to which Garriga's party was losing votes (9%). However, this changed in the second barometer, published in July, in which Aliança Catalana became the main party gaining votes from Vox (5%), ahead of the PP. This trend has solidified in this third barometer, and the loss of votes to Silvia Orriols' party has grown to 9%. Conversely, the proportion of voters moving from Vox to Aliança Catalana is lower: with the data from this November, it stands at 3% (in the other two 2025 barometers, the CEO did not perceive any shift towards Vox).

The convergence of Vox and Aliança Catalana voters is also reflected in their assessments of their political leaders. 73% of Vox supporters approve of Sílvia Orriols, the leader of the far-right pro-independence party; however, the trend is not reversed, as Aliança Catalana voters do not view Ignacio Garriga with the same favor (only 30% approve of him).

Ideological self-location

Although Aliança Catalana holds far-right positions, its voters do not ideologically place themselves at this point on the political spectrum. In the case of Silvia Orriols' party, 52% identify as centrist, 23.5% as right-wing, and only 5% as far-right. In contrast, Vox has the highest percentage of voters who identify as far-right: 25%. However, the percentage is higher among voters who place themselves on the right: 34.1%, a figure equal to that of those who place themselves in the center.

Although Silvia Orriols' party presents itself as a clearly pro-independence formation that has even advocated lifting the unilateral declaration of independence (UDI), its voters are the least pro-independence compared to those of the other sovereignist parties – 61.8% compared to the 70%-80% range. They are also the most centrist on the Spanish nationalist spectrum, at 31.7%, the highest percentage compared to Junts, ERC, and the CUP.

The immigration issue

This November's CEO survey also details the main concerns of the public, and housing remains the top issue, except for voters of Vox and Aliança Catalana. Those who support these two parties consider immigration to be the primary problem. Looking more closely at the questions on this topic, these voters are also the ones who believe there is "too much immigration" in Catalonia – 96% of Vox voters and 87% of Aliança Catalana voters – although they are closely followed by PP (80%) and PSC voters. They are also the ones who disagree with the statement that "without immigration, Catalonia's future would be worse": around 60% of voters from both parties disagree. And, at the same time, between 40% and 50% do not believe that immigration makes a "very valuable contribution" to maintaining the economy and services.