Final battle to become the useful vote to break the deadlock

BarcelonaVoting for Ciudadanos is the useful vote to avoid a PSC pact with the pro-independence movement. Voting for PSC is the useful vote to put an end to a pro-independence government. Voting for JxCat is the useful vote to avoid a tripartite. Voting for En Comú Podem is the useful vote to make the tripartite. Voting for ERC is the useful vote to ensure that the president is not "one of the same as always". Voting for the CUP is the useful vote to force JxCat and ERC to make social policies. Voting for PDECat is a useful vote so that the Government does not depend on the CUP. Voting for the PP is the useful vote to avoid a tripartite and also a pro-independence government. Or this is what everyone says.

It is the hamster wheel of electoral campaigns. They all end here and there are useful votes for all tastes. There are so many that most of them, in fact, end up being useless. Yesterday saw the end of the strangest campaign in history (this is also beginning to look like a hamster wheel) with the final rallies of the parties, a call for participation, and more uncertainty as to the configuration of the polling stations. The Generalitat guarantees that there may only be problems in 0.1% of cases, but the Barcelona Zone Electoral Board - the one with the largest population - is already anticipating that it will probably not be able to respond in time to between 2,000 and 3,000 of the allegations it has received (11,500). And yesterday the Central Electoral Board demanded that it resolve all of them, if necessary with the help of the municipal secretaries. In Catalonia as a whole, almost 34,000 have been presented.

Abstention, which will be offset by the all-time record of postal voting (284,000), is one of the most difficult variables to predict. The polls put it at between 40% and 50% and, of course, the fear of contagion, which is already very relevant in terms of the polling stations, will play an important role in defining the final figure. In an attempt to mobilise voters, cross criticisms and reproaches have been increasing in recent days, reaching a climax in Thursday's debate on La Sexta TV channel, initially a kind of "all against Illa" and, finally, an "all against all" with constant shouting and discrediting.

Pacts ahead of covid

With elections without a clear favourite, post-electoral pacts have been the key issue of the campaign. Demoscopes suggest that the pro-independence movement will once again join forces, but the CUP is not committed to backing a coalition government between Junts and Esquerra. Dolors Sabater went so far as to say, in fact, that she did not rule out a rerun of the elections, despite the fact that the CUP members ended up making her rectify her position, as they have often done in recent weeks. Yesterday it was the head of the list of the Comuns, Jéssica Albiach, who flirted with this idea, citing the rough seas between pro-independence partners. The fact is that, if the alternative were to end up with a government headed by Salvador Illa, it would be even more difficult. JxCat, ERC and the CUP have already pledged not to reach an agreement, as has Vox, and the PP would call for a consensus candidate.

However, before moving forward with scenarios, it is necessary to look at what has happened since 30 January. Rallies with masks, mostly without an audience, a commitment to telematic channels - which in many cases have not seduced the audience - and less travel than on other occasions. In search of an opportunity to open the door to Parliament, Àngels Chacón (PDECat) leads the traditional ranking of kilometres covered in the campaign published by ACN with 3,600 (a figure doped by a return trip to Madrid). JxCat and Vox's lightning visits to inland Catalonia exceed 2,000 and the bulk of the candidates are around 1,000 (Cs and the CUP around 500). Despite the fact that the pre-campaign had ended with the controversial clause that allows citizens to skip municipal (or regional) lockdown to attend political events, this option disappeared from the scene.

It was foreseeable that the pandemic would monopolise speeches, and the fact that this was not the case is one of the surprises, especially considering that one of the main candidates was, until a few weeks ago, Minister of Health. The names of some possible health ministers (Olga Pané for the PSC and Josep Maria Argimon for JxCat) were mentioned, what had been done well (by those who have governed) and badly (by those who were in opposition) was listed. However, despite the high incidence of the virus and the doubts until the last minute as to whether or not the elections would be held on 14 February, it was once again the dynamic of blocs that prevailed in the campaign.

Internal plebiscite

The search for votes has been based on a strategy similar to that of recent occasions. ERC and JxCat have competed to see which of the two was the most anti-unionist party. In 2017 this meant singling out Ciudadanos as the adversary, and on this occasion this role has been played by the PSC. Illa has on many occasions appeared to be the rival to beat whom everyone wanted to face off against. Pere Aragonès even unsuccessfully asked him for a face-to-face confrontation, which Borràs found insufficient, given the three-way tie in the polls.

The two have ended up signing a manifesto, with the CUP, PDECat and Primàries, pledging not to govern with the socialists. And neither of them has broken the pacts with the PSC and PSOE that they maintain in the Spanish Parliament, in the Barcelona Provincial Council and in some forty municipalities. Illa has tried to turn this manifesto into a smokescreen to make people forget his controversy over his refusal to take an antigen test before the last two electoral debates. Yesterday it was Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, very active in the campaign, who called for breaking the "cordon sanitaire" imposed on him by the pro-independence supporters. Pablo Iglesias, Pablo Casado, Isabel Díaz Ayuso and Inés Arrimadas have also been a constant these days, demonstrating that, although the tension of 2017 has been reduced, in these Catalan elections the state parties continue to have a lot at stake.