The PP loses ground and is left in the hands of Vox, which surges in Aragon

MadridThe president of Aragon, Jorge Azcón, called early elections because he failed to reach an agreement with Vox to pass the budget. "We must listen to the voice of the people of Aragon," he said in December when he announced the elections. However, the move backfired: although his party won the election, it lost two seats (from 28 to 26), and the far-right Vox party surged from 7 to 14 seats, doubling its results. Thus, far from reducing his dependence on the far-right, Azcón is now at their mercy: if he wants to be invested as president, he will have to reach an agreement with Santiago Abascal's party, which has thrown itself into this election campaign, as it already did in Extremadura. In his assessment on election night, Azcón tried to sidestep the negotiations that await him if he wants to retain the presidency: "The truth tonight is that we have won [...]. It is true that we have lost two seats, but no other party has had the results of the PP." "Only we can form a government for the next four years," he added.

The People's Party (PP) isn't the only one that has suffered a major setback this February 8th: the Socialist Party (PSOE) has experienced the biggest blow, losing five seats. Of the current 23 seats, the Socialist candidate and former minister Pilar Alegría was left with 18, matching the PSOE's worst historical result in Aragon in 2015.

Thus, Spanish President Pedro Sánchez's attempt to counter the PP and Vox in the autonomous communities by sending his ministers has failed, for now, since Alegría, who until recently was the face of the Spanish government as spokesperson, has been unable to overcome the negative poll numbers. In the city of Teruel, in fact, Vox has made overtaking The Socialists achieved unprecedented figures, finishing in second place behind the PP. The PP's national leadership reacted with a message directed at the Moncloa Palace: "The results clearly reflect what all of Spain thinks, that it's fed up with Pedro Sánchez," exclaimed its general secretary, Miguel Tellado. "Tick-tock, tick-tock, the Sánchez era is over," added Azcón from Zaragoza.

"It's clear this isn't a good result," admitted Alegría after learning how the new parliament would look, and pledged to mount a "serious" opposition in a press conference from the Aragonese capital. In other words, the PSOE has ruled out any possible pacts with the PP and hasn't held back its criticism of Azcón for calling early elections: Alegría accused him of serving Alberto Núñez Feijóo's national strategy and of harming the people of Aragon with the "advance of..." Ultimately, the two-party system has suffered in Aragon.

The far right increased its support among citizens, reaching 17.9% of the total vote (the PP obtained 34.2% and the PSOE 24.3%). Alejandro Nolasco, Vox's lead candidate, proclaimed to applause that "common sense has won" after the election results. "We have a contract with the voters and with our ideas; we will not let them down," he warned, indicating that he would set programmatic conditions for Azcón, although he avoided commenting on the governability of Aragon. Santiago Abascal later reaffirmed his position from Madrid.

The situation of the left

Aside from Vox, the other big winner of the night was the Chunta Aragonesista (CHA). Jorge Pueyo (CHA) increased his party's representation from 3 to 6 seats, capitalizing on the left-wing vote. "It's a bad result for Aragon, but a very good result for CHA. We've doubled our results," exclaimed Pueyo, euphoric as he assessed the election results. "We're telling Jorge Azcón that this is the beginning of the end for him; we will fight back," he added, asserting his party's position as "the true opposition" to the PP and "the benchmark of the left" in light of the PSOE's decline and the modest result for Sumar-IU, which remained unchanged with one seat. Podemos, meanwhile, disappeared from the Valencian Parliament (Les Corts), and Aragó Existe lost one seat (from 3 to 2 in Teruel). For right-wing regionalism, the result was even worse, with the PAR losing all representation.

On February 8th, 1,036,325 Aragonese voters were called to elect 67 regional deputies. An absolute majority, therefore, required 34 seats, and the People's Party (PP) fell far short. In the previous elections, in 2023, Azcón won 28 seats and formed a government thanks to the support of Vox's 7 deputies. However, as in other regions, the far-right party broke the alliance due to policy differences, leaving the region without a budget. With tonight's election results, Azcón is now focused on renewing the pact, but with a strengthened Vox. The same situation has occurred as happened to the PP in Extremadura with María Guardiola, although in her case, she won one seat; like Guardiola, the PP candidate in Aragon is now in the hands of Santiago Abascal. In this regard, it remains to be seen whether the far right will want to remain outside the executive branch—as it has done in the Valencian Community with Juanfran Pérez Llorca—or will negotiate its entry, as in Extremadura.

State Reading

Although these were regional elections in Aragon, Sunday's vote has national implications. First, because it's part of an electoral cycle that began in Extremadura and will continue in Castile and León (March 15) and then Andalusia, and it measures the current balance of power: for now, the PP, despite winning, isn't emerging stronger because it's more dependent on the far right, something that can be seen as a prelude to what might happen. This reality runs counter to Feijóo's intentions, who, by stringing together several regional victories, wanted to establish the PP as the party that could unite the right (even on its own) and present itself as an alternative to Pedro Sánchez at the national level, whose weakness he wanted to highlight.

This last point is indeed working out well for the PP. The PSOE already suffered a defeat in Extremadura, and now another in Aragon, after presenting the financing model agreed upon with Esquerra, which has generated much criticism in that region. However, there is a key difference compared to the Extremadura elections: there, Miguel Ángel Gallardo was not the candidate for theSánchez's party, while Pilar Alegría was directly appointed by the Spanish president and is part of Sánchez's strategy of placing ministers to head lists in the autonomous communities. Next is the First Vice President and Minister of Finance, María Jesús Montero, in Andalusia, who will have to compete at the polls against Juanma Moreno of the PP, who governs with an absolute majority. What she manages to achieve against the president of the Andalusian Regional Government will be crucial for the morale of the PP: losing their current support and becoming dependent on Vox would be bad news for Alberto Núñez Feijóo. But Sánchez is also taking a gamble: Montero is not just a minister, but his right-hand woman in the government and in the party, and she has taken a gamble by presenting the financing model with Esquerra Republicana in an attempt to rebuild the plurinational majority.