Could the PP and Vox end the autonomy of Catalonia, as Salvador Illa warns?

BarcelonaThe Spanish elections are approaching and most polls predict a majority for the right and the far-right in Congress. Faced with these prospects, and to activate the Catalanist and progressive electorate, the President of the Generalitat, Salvador Illa, has intensified calls for alert about the consequences that the arrival of a Spanish government formed by the PP and Vox could bring – especially for Catalonia. The latest thing the leader of the PSC has said is that it would put Catalan autonomy at "real risk".

Legal experts consulted by ARA state that it is very complicated for this to happen, although they warn that they can indeed reduce and hinder it. The associate professor of constitutional law at the University of Barcelona (UB) Natalia Caicedo explains that the path that would most severely damage the country's self-government would be a reform of the Constitution, if they modified Title VIII, which guarantees the autonomy of the administrations of the autonomous communities. It must be taken into account, however, that a reform of the Magna Carta requires three-fifths of the Congress and three-fifths of the Senate. That is to say, at least 210 deputies and 161 senators. At this moment, the vast majority of polls estimate that the PP and Vox would remain below this figure.

There are other options that are more viable. Caicedo points out that the PP and Vox could choose to approve "expansive state legislation that regulates practically everything and leaves no margin for the autonomous communities". One of the examples the professor gives is an eventual law promoted by the Spanish government that establishes commercial hours or which treatments or medications are covered by public healthcare. This strategy – the expert indicates – could reduce the Generalitat to "pure administration". In this sense, she points out that a Spanish right-wing and far-right government can also "come into conflict" with powers reserved to the Generalitat and, for example, apply measures to weaken Catalan.

Thus, Caicedo notes that Vox "breaks with the political agreements of the Transition" and "does not see the Constitution as a limit," not even when it comes to making some of its most recurring threats a reality: the end of linguistic immersion and intervening in TV3 or, directly, applying Article 155 again to control Catalan autonomy. One of the possibilities –the expert points out– is that they go ahead and pass laws and regulations by majority in Congress to achieve their objectives, even if they contravene the Magna Carta. Mind you, these measures could be taken to the Constitutional Court (TC) or, depending on the circumstances, to the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) or the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU).

On the other hand, the expert points out that a PP and Vox government can also place serious obstacles to the proper functioning of autonomy and, for example, can be "very proactive" when it comes to "challenging before the Constitutional Court" any regulation approved by the Generalitat. "When the central government challenges a law, it is automatically suspended for three months, which causes a kind of paralysis of the autonomy," the professor adds. During the years of the 'Procés', this was precisely one of the favorite formulas of Mariano Rajoy's government.

The professor of constitutional law at the UB, Joan Ridao, points out that autonomy has already been shrinking for years under both PSOE and PP governments, and that the Spanish state has been "expanding" into shared competencies that "traditionally" belonged to the autonomous regions, such as housing or consumer affairs, which "at the moment are regulated" by Madrid. "The State is like the overbearing father who decides everything, and the autonomous communities are doing enough if they can take on the management," he summarizes.

In any case, Ridao rules out that when push comes to shove, the PP and Vox want to put an end to the autonomous model. He remarks that over the last few decades "an entire habitat of political decentralization has been created" and that he "cannot imagine" a scenario in which the barons of the Popular Party, who currently govern the vast majority of the autonomous communities, would accept it. Furthermore, the former ERC deputy in Congress recalls that Vox "has not considered renouncing autonomy" when it has been in autonomous governments.

A new 155

The conditions for applying Article 155 of the Constitution and intervening in the Generalitat are not very precise: it can be activated whenever an autonomous community "does not fulfill the obligations of the Constitution or other laws imposed upon it, or acts in a way that seriously undermines the general interest of the State." In legal language –explains Caicedo– it is a point that contains "indeterminate concepts" and, therefore, gives quite a lot of room for various interpretations. "If a political force that does not share these constitutional consensuses comes to power, the interpretative breadth of the precept acquires an especially worrying dimension," adds the expert.

The professor of constitutional law recalls that until now it has only been applied once and, although "it may be highly criticizable," it was activated for a "major cause," such as the unilateral declaration of independence of Catalonia. It could be said, therefore, that a restrictive reading has been made of it. However, Caicedo warns that Vox may have a lighter finger when it comes to pressing this button, and that it may advocate for applying a new 155 for much lesser issues.