Could the PP and Vox end the autonomy of Catalonia, just as Salvador Illa warns?

BarcelonaThe Spanish elections are approaching and most polls predict a majority for the right and the far-right in Congress. Faced with these prospects, and to activate the Catalanist and progressive electorate, the President of the Generalitat, Salvador Illa, has intensified the warnings about the consequences that the arrival of a Spanish government formed by the PP and Vox could bring –especially for Catalonia–. The latest thing the PSC leader has said is that it would put Catalan autonomy at "real risk".

Legal experts consulted by ARA state that it is very complicated for this to happen, although they warn that they can indeed reduce and hinder it. Natalia Caicedo, associate professor of constitutional law at the University of Barcelona (UB), explains that the path that would most damage the country's self-government would be a reform of the Constitution, if they modified Title VIII, which guarantees the autonomy of the administrations of the autonomous communities. It must be taken into account, however, that a reform of the Magna Carta requires three-fifths of Congress and three-fifths of the Senate. That is, at least 210 deputies and 161 senators. At this time, the vast majority of polls estimate that the PP and Vox would remain below that figure.

There are other options that are more viable. Caicedo points out that the PP and Vox could choose to approve an "expansive state legislation that regulates practically everything and leaves no room for the autonomous communities". One of the examples the professor gives is an eventual law promoted by the Spanish government that establishes commercial hours or which treatments or medicines public healthcare covers. This strategy –the expert indicates– could reduce the Generalitat to "pure management". In this sense, she points out that a right-wing and far-right Spanish government can also "come into collision" with powers reserved for the Generalitat and, for example, apply measures to weaken the Catalan language.

Thus, Caicedo notes that Vox "breaks with the political agreements of the Transition" and "does not see the Constitution as a limit," not even when it comes to making some of its most recurrent threats a reality: the end of linguistic immersion and intervening in TV3 or, directly, applying Article 155 again to control Catalan autonomy. One of the possibilities – the expert points out – is that they go straight ahead and approve laws and regulations by majority in Congress to achieve their objectives, even if they contravene the Magna Carta. Mind you, these measures could be taken to the Constitutional Court (TC) or, depending on the case, to the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) or the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU).

On the other hand, the expert points out that a PP and Vox government could also put serious obstacles in the way of the proper functioning of autonomy and, for example, could be "very proactive" when it comes to "challenging before the Constitutional Court" any regulation approved by the Generalitat. "When the central government challenges a law, it is automatically suspended for five months, which causes a kind of paralysis of autonomy," adds the professor. During the years of the 'Procés', this was precisely one of the preferred formulas of Mariano Rajoy's government.

The professor of constitutional law at the UB, Joan Ridao, points out that autonomy has already been shrinking for years under both PSOE and PP governments, and that the Spanish state has been "expanding" into shared powers that "traditionally" belonged to the autonomous regions, such as housing or consumer affairs, which "are currently regulated" by Madrid. "The State is like the overbearing father who decides everything, and the autonomous communities are doing enough if they can just manage," he summarizes.

In any case, Ridao rules out that when push comes to shove, the PP and Vox would want to end the autonomous model. He remarks that over the last few decades "an entire habitat of political decentralization has been created" and that he "cannot imagine" a scenario in which the barons of the Popular Party, who currently govern the vast majority of the autonomous communities, would accept it. Furthermore, the former ERC deputy in Congress recalls that Vox "has not considered renouncing autonomy" when it has been in regional governments.

A new 155

The conditions for applying Article 155 of the Constitution and intervening in the Generalitat are not very precise: it can be activated whenever an autonomous community "fails to fulfill the obligations imposed upon it by the Constitution or other laws, or acts in a way that seriously threatens the general interest of the State". In legal language –explains Caicedo– this is a point that contains "indeterminate concepts" and, therefore, gives significant room for various interpretations. "If a political force that does not share these constitutional consensuses comes to power, the interpretative breadth of the precept acquires an especially worrying dimension," adds the expert.

The professor of constitutional law recalls that until now it has only been applied once and, although it "may be highly criticizable", it was activated for a "major cause", such as the unilateral declaration of independence of Catalonia. It could be said, therefore, that a restrictive reading has been made of it. However, Caicedo warns that Vox may have a lighter finger when it comes to pressing this button, and that it may advocate applying a new 155 for much more minor issues.