Free-for-all in unionist camp to lead the alternative to Independence bid

BarcelonaAll the polls that have been made public until now -after Monday no more polls may be published- point out that the three unionist right-wing parties would be very far from adding up a majority that would allow them to govern Catalonia. The Popular Party (PP), Ciudadanos (Cs) and Vox would need the votes of the Catalan Socialist Party (PSC) to try an alternative to a pro-independence coalition and, even so, they would not get the necessary 68 seats. En Comú Podem has guaranteed they would not facilitate a government in which Vox participated. Therefore, a constitutionalist government agreement is, according to the polls, practically impossible and the struggle between the PP, Cs and Vox, but also the PSC, boils down to who ends up leading the alternative to independence. The socialists are ahead and, therefore, are drawing all criticism. The PP and Vox have even said they will veto Illa's investiture. The PP has opted for a constitutionalist consensus candidate, who could be a socialist but not Illa.

The PSC is confident that the so-called Illa effect will help them, at the very least, to capitalise on the huge blow the polls predict for Ciudadanos. The Spanish president, Pedro Sánchez, has turned to the Catalan election campaign to try to get Illa, his ex minister of Health, elected Catalan president. He called for the "useful vote" on the left to allow a coalition government with En Comú Podem. Illa has repeatedly stated his preference for this option, which is in power at state level.

Both En Comú Podem and the socialists prefer a left-wing coalition. However, unlike En Comú Podem, the socialists would veto an alliance with pro-independence Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC), which in turn vetoes the socialists. "We have to turn a page", Illa has been saying since the beginning of the campaign. Turning the page on the independence bid, according to the PSC, means not to incorporate any pro-independence party to Government, in spite of the fact that this Monday Illa opened the door to accepting external support on specific issues. To open this new chapter, the PSC also discards a great unionist front with Cs and the PP because, in the words of the same Illa, "they live entrenched in confrontation". Despite the refusals, Illa's suitors are not giving up. Carrizosa is convinced that Illa "will be forced to agree with the constitutionalists" and Albiach insists that "they will find the formula" so that ERC and PSC find an understanding.

The battle to lead the right

Ciudadanos, Vox and the PP are feeding the spectre of the three-way left-wing coalition of ERC, PSC and En Comú Podem. They are competing in their own race to lead the right and not be totally crushed by Illa achieving great result. In 2017, Ciudadanos managed to capitalise on unionism rejection of the referendum, but for months the polls have predicted a significant fall for the party. Their votes go mostly to the PSC, but the PP and Vox also hope to convince a part of the undecided. "The parties that lead the polls are the undecided and the abstentionists," Arrimadas has said on several occasions. According to the poll published by ARA this weekend, of the 22% of people who still would not have decided which ballot to choose on 14-F, only 2% hesitate between the PP, Cs and Vox

A few weeks ago, the polls predicted a PP on the rise that could double its four seats and, in fact, party tacticians were even confident of overtaking Ciudadanos. Now, however, the latest polls predict stagnation. And, in addition, the campaign has been complicated by the trial on the PP's slush fund and ex-treasurer Luis Bárcenas's threat to tell all. The PP leader, Pablo Casado, admitted as much this Monday in an interview to Onda Cero, in which he assured that this matter was going to have "a terrible" electoral cost and that he was "fed up".

The PP have tried to avoid the question in electoral events over the past days, but candidate, Alejandro Fernandez, decided to change his strategy and come out in defence of the party: "The PP is not Bárcenas. The PP is Miguel Angel Blanco, Paco Cano and heroes who gave their lives for freedom and for Spain". Several popular leaders have tried to disassociate themselves from the Bárcenas case by presenting it as a thing of the past. Fernandez did the same on Monday, claiming the party works with "honesty and integrity". "Those were other times," he said in an interview with SER Catalonia. The PP leadership has gone even further, accusing Spanish president Pedro Sánchez of using the Prosecutor's Office to his advantage: "You will not tell me that it is a coincidence that last Thursday Bárcenas's case was brought up by the Prosecutor's Office, which is led by one of Sánchez's ex-ministers".

The banner of anti-corruption

Who could benefit? One of the options would be Vox. That is why for the past couple of days the PP has been attacking the far-right party. On Monday, Fernández claimed that the entry of the extreme right - he does not use the term - to Parliament will cause more "instability", and on Sunday tried to dismantle the idea of suppressing regional governments as proposed by Vox. The PP candidate has presented himself throughout the campaign as the antidote to populist movements, in which includes the pro-independence movement, but also Vox. However, it is only two days ago that he started attacking Vox's proposals.

The strategy of non-aggression among the right, then, has been broken with Bárcenas's confession, also by Cs and Vox. On Monday, both parties poured salt on the wound. Cs had ex public prosecutor Edmundo Bal, who was involved in some of the corruption court cases against the PP, come to Barcelona. "Instead of accepting and collaborating, they claim that it is a bygone era," Bal criticised the current PP leadership. And knowing disgruntled PP voters may go over to Vox, he has highlighted connexions between the parties: "Before creating Vox, many of its leaders were also collecting salaries from the PP," said Bal. On the other hand, the far-right party has been even more direct and has appealed to PP voters who are "fed up" with so much corruption. "Vox will defend them," said Garriga.

During the first week the attacks flew basically against the pro-independence parties, but as election day gets closer, the fight becomes more fierce within the unionist bloc, aware that the spoils left by the PSC could be too little.