Almost half of Spaniards are already governed by the PP and Vox

MadridAlberto Núñez Feijóo had a hope with Juanma Moreno Bonilla. He was the regional baron with the most possibilities, according to the polls, of maintaining the absolute majority and continuing to govern without the concurrence of Vox. But the result of the elections dispelled any doubt that the destiny of the PP requires having to coexist with the far-right, even its most moderate leader, as has been demonstrated with this Thursday's pact which cedes important spaces of power to Santiago Abascal's party in Andalusia. With Juanma Moreno's new coalition government with the far-right, the PP-Vox coalition becomes the regional executive model that governs the most people in the State, specifically 27.3%, ahead of popular governments on their own, which rule over 20.8% of citizens, and PP governments with far-right support, which affect 16.8%.

Thus, after the elections in Extremadura, Aragon, Castile and León, and Andalusia, up to 44.1% of the Spanish population is now under the government of a PP and Vox pact, either through a governmental or parliamentary agreement. After the 2023 regional elections, the figure was much lower: only 26.6%, as Andalusia is the most populated community and the Popular Party governed until now with an absolute majority. "I am not happy," Moreno Bonilla justified this Friday, as he would have liked to continue alone. But he justified: "I thought that the general interest was above my interest, I don't know if I was wrong or not, but I thought that stability and a government above my particular interest were necessary".

Despite the fact that the Andalusian PP was only two seats short of an absolute majority, this has not prevented Vox from conquering a macro vice-presidency with competencies in justice, tourism, deregulation, and local administration. In other words, it has followed the same dynamic as in Extremadura, Aragon, and Castilla y León. These are communities governed with the influence of the far-right, adding to the Valencian Community, the Balearic Islands, and Murcia. In fact, Isabel Díaz Ayuso (Madrid) and Alfonso Rueda (Galicia) are now the only PP barons who can govern without the support of Santiago Abascal. In summary, after this electoral cycle, the far-right's regional power share is up to four vice-presidencies and nine ministries, mainly covering competencies in environment, social services, agriculture, family, and tourism, which are fundamental sectors of Vox's discourse.

In this way, the cards have been dealt while waiting for next year's electoral cycle, when the national parties will face each other again at the polls in municipal and regional elections. However, the perspective with which they will face these elections will depend on Pedro Sánchez, as he must decide whether to call the Spanish elections before this date – after a possible failure to approve the budgets – or to wait until after, to repeat the operation of 2023, when the fear of right-wing and far-right governments that were emerging in many regions gave the PSOE and its partners, especially in Catalonia and the Basque Country, a sufficient result for the PP and Vox not to reach Moncloa.

Pragmatism prevails in the PP

With the latest regional results in hand, pragmatism has prevailed within the PP and they do not dismiss the possibility of Santiago Abascal being vice-president of Spain. Alberto Núñez Feijóo accepted this with normality in a relaxed interview on El hormiguero a few weeks ago: "My goal is to govern alone. However, I will not demonize a party that is the third largest in Spain and that more than three million Spaniards say they will vote for according to polls. I am a democrat, I will accept the result at the polls and I will guarantee political stability in my country". José María Aznar also ruled out a possible pact with Junts and the PNB that, if they were to add up, could free the PP from Vox: "The majority will be national or it will not be," he resolved. In fact, the hegemony of the right is total: more than 70% of Spanish citizens have governments with a popular presence. Catalonia and the Basque Country are their black holes, as they have a lower percentage of votes there — in the Catalan and Basque parliaments the PP is the fourth force — compared to the other communities where the PSOE governs: in Castilla-La Mancha and Asturias the populars came in second position.

PP sources are firm in their decision to pact with the far-right: they assure that they will try to govern without a coalition, but they also add that the one who should be feared is not Vox, but Pedro Sánchez. In fact, they emphasize that, after this electoral cycle that began in Extremadura and ended in Andalusia, passing through Aragon and Castilla y León, the majority of citizens in these communities have chosen the PP and Vox, and not the PSOE. "What mobilizes is going against Pedro Sánchez," they state, adding that while in 2023 there was doubt about what the policies of right-wing and far-right governments would be, this no longer exists because there has already been an autonomous experience of coalition governments.

"What policies have we enacted against women?" these PP sources ask themselves, and they affirm that they have not made extremist decisions, despite the fact that in the pacts they do adopt Vox's framework regarding immigration, such as "national priority" policies or the withdrawal of subsidies from organizations, such as Cáritas, that help immigrants. That is, according to the PP, there is no longer any excuse to foster fear of a government with the far-right, even though Moncloa continues to think that it is an electoral lever to be used.

The PSOE considers that the PP and Vox governments demonstrate that the left must mobilize so that they do not reach the national government. In fact, they assure that they will be monitored by the Spanish executive to see if they violate the rights of collectives in the exercise of autonomous power. This Friday, the spokesperson for the Spanish government, Elma Saiz, lamented that at the moment the PP is Vox and accused Feijóo's party of "harming institutions and democracy." The government does not agree that the effect of the far-right is already discounted by the experience of these three years and trusts that it can still be a catalyst for improvement in the polls. And more so, with the decisions that they interpret that PP-Vox coalitions may make in the coming months.