The X-ray of the Vox and Aliança Catalana voter

BarcelonaAfter decades of what was known as "Iberian exceptionalism" – the absence of radical right-wing formations in the peninsula's parliaments – this political spectrum has not only burst into the Catalan Parliament, but has done so twice over. A study by the Institute of Political and Social Sciences (ICPS), published this Wednesday, thoroughly analyzes the rise of Vox and Aliança Catalana (AC), two parties that, despite defending diametrically opposed national projects, are mainly fueled by the same electoral engine: the rejection of immigration.The ICPS study challenges the idea that the growth of these parties is solely due to polarization and the management of the independence process. While the territorial conflict created the right climate for Vox, led by Ignasi Garriga, to enter Parliament in 2021 and Catalan Alliance, led by Sílvia Orriols, to do so in 2024, the real driving force for both electorates is structural. Both formations fully exploit "welfare chauvinism," a strategy that advocates for public services to be reserved exclusively for "nationals." Both the party led by Santiago Abascal and Sílvia Orriols' party agree in their manifestos to associate immigration and crime, demand the deportation of irregular immigrants and the expulsion of unaccompanied foreign minors (MENA), and call for drastic measures to speed up the eviction of squatters. Economically, they are also on the same page: they propose tax cuts, the abolition of taxes such as inheritance and gift tax and wealth tax, criticize excessive public spending, and generally call for a strong boost to free market policies.

The voter profile: the national axis tips the scales

One of the great contributions of the ICPS notebook is the detailed statistical analysis on the factors that determined the vote for Vox or Aliança Catalana in the 2024 elections. The data, as can be seen in the graph, paint an almost identical sociodemographic portrait, but with one insurmountable point of divergence: the national axis.

The typical voter of the radical right in Catalonia has a male face. The study notes that women are significantly less likely to vote for either of the two formations (they represent only 25% in AC and 45% in Vox). Regarding age, middle-aged voters (especially the 40-44 age group) show a higher propensity to support them. Furthermore, the study shows that both forces attract voters clearly positioned on the ideological right with an above-average interest in politics. However, it should be noted that the pull towards the right is statistically stronger among Vox sympathizers.

However, reading the data reveals that the main transversal trigger for this vote is immigration. Considering this issue as the main topic of the electoral campaign substantially increases the probability of choosing the ballot of either party. This factor has a devastating effect in the case of Aliança Catalana, where the probability of voting for them jumps from 2% to 9% among those who see immigration as the central problem.

But if immigration acts as the glue that brings together the anger, national identity stands as an insurmountable containment dike that automatically distributes votes. People who feel exclusively Catalan or more Catalan than Spanish are highly likely to vote for AC. Conversely, those who feel exclusively or more Spanish flee AC and lean directly towards Vox.

The lines that separate them

Despite the shared nativism, and beyond national shock, Vox and Aliança Catalana maintain abysmal differences on the social axis. The Spanish far-right anchors itself in pure traditionalism, adopting, as the study highlights, "an ultraconservative position": it denies the concept of gender violence, climate change, and advocates for the repeal of all LGBTIQ+ protections. In contrast, AC opts for a Nordic-style "homonationalism", validating diversity and the defense of women's rights to instrumentalize them as a battering ram against Islam.