Well yes, the economy would allow us to live 150 years.

Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping this Wednesday in Beijing.
2 min

This week, the presidents of China and Russia have speculated about the possibility of living to 150. I've been reading articles on the subject because, I confess, I'm interested. The articles I've read that prompted the conversation between Putin and Xi Jinping focus on whether this will be biologically possible: organs; cell therapies; how to stop aging. Even how to stimulate bone marrow to generate antibodies that keep us younger.

My surprise: All the approaches are clinical. No one analyzes it from an economic perspective. Can the economy sustain life expectancies of 150 years?

You might be surprised by the answer: yes. Absolutely, yes.

Life expectancy has continued to grow. Several centuries ago, it was 25 or 30 years. At the beginning of the 20th century, it was around 50. Today, in Europe, it's between 82 and 84. Life expectancy has tripled if we look at historical data. So, if we went from living 84 to 150, we're talking about a 78% increase. Much less than previous increases!

And many will ask: if Spain's current social security system is bankrupt at 84 years old, how will it be sustainable for 150 years?

The difference is that, since 1960, we've gained more than 20 years of life expectancy. Every two and a half years, we've increased life expectancy by one year. That's the problem! It's the speed at which we live longer, not the age we reach.

Social security systems are built on demographic ratios, working life cycles, and contribution formulas that take decades to stabilize. The same is true in the business world. Salary and employment structures are designed for 40- or 45-year working life cycles. Extending workers' useful lives requires new models of ongoing training, occupational health, and age management.

Changing economic structures requires time to adapt policies, laws, and practices, and to correct imbalances. This is why the evolution of life expectancy this century is disrupting pensions, healthcare, the labor market, and even the education system.

In short, it is more economically unsustainable to live 83 years today than to live 300 years someday, as long as we live long enough centuries from now for economic structures to absorb it.

In economics, it's irrelevant how long we live! What matters is how fast we live longer.

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