Trump and the peace of the aggressor
Donald Trump's negotiating strategy is to put the worst possible scenario on the table and force all parties to take a stand. On Friday, he announced a 28-point peace plan that felt like a Ukrainian capitulation. A plan in which neither the Kyiv government nor the European Union—much less the United Nations—had any say, and which Volodymyr Zelensky interpreted as a poisoned chalice between "losing dignity or losing a key partner."
The plan pivots on four pillars: a concession de facto of territories in eastern Ukraine under Russian control, including areas currently under Kyiv's control; Ukraine's renunciation of its NATO membership application and acceptance, in exchange, of a monitored neutrality status; a reduction in Ukrainian army personnel and weaponry—but nothing is said about limiting Russian military power—and an agreement to use frozen Russian assets that, in effect, exempts Russia from paying for the destruction and leaves the cost of reconstruction to the European Union.
Trump's plan recognizes Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk as Russian, grants Putin parts of Donetsk he hasn't captured, and freezes the battle lines in such a way as to allow Russia to retain the territory seized from Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. Initially, it's not everything Putin would have wanted, but it's generous enough to proclaim a victory that saves face from what should have been a lightning operation that has dragged on into three years of attrition.
Once again, Donald Trump's peace is the peace of the aggressor. To such an extent that a group of US senators, including Republican Mike Rounds, a member of the Senate Intelligence Committee, denounced the 28 points as not a Washington proposal, but rather the Russian position, allegedly leaked to them by a representative from Moscow. It was later confirmed that the plan was largely drafted in Florida between real estate developer and Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff, and Kirill Dmitriev, head of a Russian sovereign wealth fund and confidant of Vladimir Putin, representing the Kremlin. Another Republican, Senator Mitch McConnell, warned in recent hours that "pressuring the victim and appeasing the aggressor" will not bring peace.
For Ukrainians, the plan comes at a time of profound weariness, facing the prospect of a harsh winter with limited electricity and escalating attacks. But the prospect of a peace that leaves them vulnerable and without security guarantees is once again proving motivating, also in favor of Zelensky, who was experiencing a downturn in the face of recent corruption scandals.
The plan, as initially presented, specifically prohibits the deployment of foreign troops to protect Ukraine in the event of future conflicts. Point 9 even states specifically that European fighter jets will be stationed in Poland. Although the content appears neutral, the wording strikes a nerve in Polish politics: Washington and Moscow have agreed to limit the presence of foreign forces on Polish territory, including NATO forces. For a country that, like many of its neighbors—especially the Baltic states—has always heard that its security against Russia was based on a direct and privileged relationship with Washington, this point is a "brutal wake-up call," as one Polish journalist described it. The EU also advocates deploying European troops on the ground to monitor compliance with a ceasefire, an idea that Moscow flatly rejects. Although the initial reaction of the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, was to warn that "borders cannot be changed by force," for the EU it is not just about territory and establishing buffer zones. For Brussels, and especially for the member states that border Russia, the priority is to ensure that there can be no further aggression from the Kremlin. The EU is currently the main source of financial and military support for Ukraine. But both Kyiv and Brussels know very well that Europeans do not have the capacity to fill the void that a definitive US withdrawal would leave, not only in terms of weaponry, but also in terms of support for communications infrastructure and intelligence services. Ukraine's fate has entered a critical week. While diplomacy seeks consensus in Geneva, Trump accuses Zelensky of being ungrateful. And the EU demands its own voice from a position of absolute subordination to its transatlantic dependence and from the declared contempt of its historical ally.
