I write about this topic with some skepticism about the results, but I do so believing that I'm helping to understand quite complex regional financing problems. And this currently has political significance, both in terms of the stability of the Spanish and Catalan governments—in that order—and the fear that the far right could come to power.
In the debate about the uniqueness of the model, Catalonia stands alone, because the proposal is concrete; however, regarding the need for new general financing, there is broad agreement, because the vagueness of the formulation helps. However, in both cases, three axes hang in the balance. In the PSC (not in the PSOE, and it doesn't seem likely to change its mind), the issue of respect for ordinality, thanks to which the Isla government is sustained (in monetary terms, we're talking about an additional six billion). This axis has a study commission that, for the moment, is unable to justify this figure, as they operate in different political scenarios that do not depend on the commission, and the state treasury, for the moment, does not provide any options to determine where this money could be obtained.
ERC is clinging to a second axis, that of personal income tax. That is why it has submitted a proposal in the Spanish Parliament for a maximum tax law (reductions would come later in the process) to fully transfer everything related to income tax.
Together, in matters of regional financing, it adds a third axis, that of the publication of fiscal balances and their impact on the Catalan economy. It thus intends for the central government to recognize itself in a snapshot (that of the method of calculating monetary flow) in which it comes out quite poorly.
It is hard to believe that this whole puzzle would lead to a meeting of the Fiscal and Financial Policy Council, where Vice President Montero will show that there is no possible solution for the three claims beyond verbal agreements that could be anything but a new "model". men On the right, no matter how much money the State puts in, they will hardly concede a victory to the socialist candidate in the Andalusian elections, nor will they help maintain Sánchez's controversial government. Otherwise, Airef, Fedea, CEOE and tutti quanti to the cry of "there is no money", that "we must comply with the spending rule" and redirect the deficit path, that "the extraordinary income from maximum tax collection – extraordinary due to the current situation – cannot be spent on financing ordinary, recurring expenses", that "there are defense commitments so that they do not make us today" the extension of the budget extensions is scarce", etc. All of them from their own position of economic reason.
How could we all get out of this hole together and stop digging so that the far right doesn't overwhelm our fragile democracy?
I would say: ERC, forget what it's now demanding regarding personal income tax, entrust the collection of this tax to the State Tax Agency and ensure that it leaves it for the use of the Generalitat in an account at the Bank of Spain.
Together, ensure that budget data is shown every year with the maximum possible territorialization, updated, and that it makes it unnecessary to impute calculations that someone, with more or less common sense, can always dispute; and we'll do it ourselves. Transparency first, calculations later. And force a leveling fiscal pact: of all the revenue achieved in Catalonia, how much do we contribute to maintaining common burdens while they remain common, in the style of the fiscal pact proposed by Artur Mas.
And to the PSC I would say that, in the absence of singularity and effective ordinalities, pulegio With the fish in the hatch, as far as possible, through expenditure items that fall under state jurisdiction, which are poorly visualized, poorly executed, and often underestimated in the analysis. Because that's where the baby cries. And because it's well known that reforming regional financing will never make it possible to recover the fiscal deficit of the 22 billion euros a year that is being cited.
And in civil society, let it be aware once and for all that without a better recovery of the money that Catalans pay—and never repay—there will be no room to finance new programs for social housing, mental health, or investment in vocational training. On the contrary, for the moment I observe that the current Generalitat is already spending what it doesn't earn, on account of what is expected to be new regional financing, reducing the room for improvement.
