The real blender

BarcelonaWith the economy in a state of free fall, that is to say, with the people who are behind every small and large business and every self-employed person's anxiety levels soaring for their survival, with hospitals on the edge, and with fear in the body, the 14 February elections are coming up, elections with results that are difficult to predict with any certainty, basically because of the unpredictability of the turnout. The results of these elections are difficult to predict with any certainty, basically because of the unpredictability of the turnout. How will the fear of contagion influence them? Will people at risk go to polling stations? And what about grandparents? Has political mobilisation dropped? The survey published today by the ARA gives some clues as to what public opinion was like this week (the fieldwork was carried out between 1 and 4 February), and some conclusions can be drawn.

Low turnout

First of all, the turnout could be one of the lowest in Catalonia's history and is unlikely to exceed 60%. Moreover, there is a very high level of people who have directly told the pollster that they will not vote. Exactly 23% of those surveyed, and this is a comparatively high figure, to which the uncertainty of those who have not decided whether they will go or not must be added. It can be foreseen that a low turnout would have a more negative effect on the non-independence bloc and at the same time would benefit the smaller parties because of the electoral system.

An intra-bloc competition

We are facing a relatively stable situation if we read it in terms of the blocs that have formed in Catalan politics and that are seen in a stable manner in the different elections. The transfer of votes is internal within the pro-independence group and within the constitutionalist group, and not between blocs.

Today, the non-independence leadership would pass from the hands of Ciudadanos, which loses two thirds of its voters, to the PSC with the Illa effect, which feeds off Ciudadanos and the Comunes. The former minister's campaign and Iceta's presence in the Spanish government fuel the idea of turning the "page" without specifying how to resolve the situation of prisoners and exiles or the limitations on self-government that gave rise to the current process.

The Opinòmetre poll confirms the entry of the extreme right. It is bad news that in the Parliament there could be between 6 and 7 far-right MPs. We know historically, and we have seen it recently on Capitol Hill, that in times of turbulence those who have no prejudice to lie and master the language of rage, those who falsify reality with the audacity of the ignorant trusting in the respect of others, those who exchange complexity for totalitarian rationale, have an advantage in public debate and in some of the media.

Governing the 15-F

The ARA poll indicates that the contest is an ongoing one and the result will depend on the turnout at the polls. For now the outcome is very tight, with ERC winning, PSC in second place, and JxCat in third.

The tight results indicate how difficult it will be the day after the elections to form a government. One of the relevant findings of the survey, which we will develop tomorrow in the pages of the ARA, is the weariness of the government formula of the last few convulsive legislatures.

There is weariness among citizens and, in fact, among the protagonists themselves, and at the same time a parliamentary arithmetic that is imposing itself. The campaign interviews and the constant public polemics reveal the wear and tear of the government formula, while the polls show that there is little chance of achieving a parliamentary majority capable of appointing a president that does not require the support of the pro-independence parties.

Judging by the campaign, relations are terrible, but there is nothing that invites pragmatism more than a parliamentary majority to gain access to government. In the Generalitat, in the City Council, in the Diputació - and wherever possible.

The electoral result is sufficiently open to think that the last week of the campaign and the last debate between the candidates could be relevant to encourage some citizens to go to the polls, and also to make them vary their vote. Mistakes will be costly and successes may also improve some prospects. For example, PDECat does not come out directly, but the margin of error of the poll and above all the level of participation may condition its entry into Parliament. The 15-F will be important for governability in key years for the reconstruction of the post-pandemic period, years in which long-term strategic decisions can be taken and which will be important for the rebuilding of internal spaces.