The succession of globally significant newsworthy events is accelerating. This is the era of Trump, the owner and principal content creator of a social network. The week and a half that has passed since the first bombing of Tehran, in which the top brass of the Iranian regime were killed, has made all the headline news of the previous two frenetic months seem like a distant memory. At the considerable risk of sudden news obsolescence, I venture to offer a few reflections.
First, it is clear that Israel has achieved what it wanted. It is also clear that Netanyahu knows how to drag the US president to where he wants him. In fact, we still haven't heard a credible explanation of why the US went to war, apart from a moment of candor from the US Secretary of State acknowledging that they couldn't allow Israel to get ahead of them. In other words, Trump was forced to follow Netanyahu without having any plan.
No one quite understands what Trump intended, nor what structural (strategic, economic, and business) or situational (political and media) interests his decision served. It is very shocking that the world's leading power is embroiled in a war that it wants to appear to have declared following a well-thought-out plan, but which it obviously entered improvised, dragged along by the strategy of a very influential partner and friend. Every day new explanations emerge that offer new perspectives.
The damage and suffering inflicted on Iran have been enormous, yet the Iranian regime seems stronger than ever. Those of us who have lived under a dictatorship like Franco's know all too well that external threats strengthen dictatorships. This is one of the reasons why trade boycotts in dictatorships are not only useless but counterproductive. They only hurt the citizens without worrying the ruling group.
Certainly, it might be true that Iran has lost the bulk of its offensive capabilities, but it has not lost its repressive capacity. It is very likely that the opposition is now weaker than ever. In any case, the population's ability to protest is reduced to practically zero. They are left only with the hope of fleeing, if they survive. It is striking to see how, revolt after revolt, protest after protest, the Iranian regime does not hesitate to impose itself ruthlessly and without flinching. Regime change has been pushed back indefinitely.
One very notable surprise has been the impact of the war on the Persian Gulf monarchies. They seemed absolutely secure, and had invested massively in creating luxury havens that could only be enjoyed under the assumption that they would never be attacked. They had been careful to cultivate friendly and business relationships with all potentially involved parties. This assumption has been shattered. How they will react is still a mystery, but it will probably take them a long time to recover from the shock of what they are going through. It now turns out that their northern neighbor, Iran, is much more predictable than the American friend to whom they have given so many gifts and with whom they have done so much business. Today, it does not appear that Iranian attacks across the Persian Gulf are likely to end, and this is probably the greatest military leverage Iran has ever possessed.
The new geopolitical balance will be heavily influenced by this new frontier of tension: the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz—now under Iranian control disputed by the US—is gaining prominence as the critical point for global oil supplies.
The US doesn't know how to extricate itself from the mess it has created. The Ayatollah regime survives much stronger, with an extraordinary epic of resistance against its enemies. Israel has taken advantage of the situation to do the dirty work that war justifies and now wields much more power, while Netanyahu has gained domestic legitimacy. A likely consequence may be that Trump will step back and shift attention to another front that seems easier to manage, thus continuing to distract the American electorate.
Certainly, the Castro regime in Cuba seems most likely to pay the price for Trump's mistakes. He is very weakened, but he could be in a position to manage a solution like Venezuela's, even led by the current leaders, who will be willing to negotiate downwards. Given what's at stake, we hope Pedro Sánchez comes out unscathed, something that isn't entirely certain despite the protection of the European Union and Spanish public opinion.
Oh! And what will the increase in the price of oil have as consequences? The usual ones: we will all pay for it, and those who are best positioned to reap the spectacular profits generated from extraction to final distribution will benefit. They will be few, and they are all very rich.
