The French tangle
1. French politics is gripped by the threat of the far right, a threat that is spreading throughout Europe in the form of fears of a widespread rise in neo-fascism. This anxiety is in keeping with the logic of times in which the right seems to accept the drift towards post-democratic authoritarianism, and neo-fascists capitalize on it with the classic game of copycats. For some time now, the names of Marine Le Pen—given her pending criminal case—and Jordan Bardella have been mentioned as potential presidential candidates. However, this weekend's municipal and regional elections, while not decisive, have highlighted the gap between rhetoric and reality, giving France signs that might suggest the reactionary movement is not as potent as it seems, provided the right doesn't lend it a hand.
The results send clear messages. National Rally continues to grow, but it is far from having a homogeneous presence throughout France. Its presence is uneven, with particular strength in the southeast, and it hasn't even managed to secure the most coveted prize: Marseille. Northern Catalonia, with Perpignan at its heart, is one of the areas most favorable to the far right, suggesting that it must feel somewhat neglected by French centralism.
2. No one can claim victory. The fragmentation into several parties, both on the left and the right, makes it difficult: division and unstable alliances prevail on both sides. However, the left has managed to hold onto key cities like Paris, Lyon, and Marseille. And Édouard Philippe, with his victory in Le Havre, has foreshadowed a presidential candidacy for the Republicans. France remains far from a two-party system, and forming majorities is becoming increasingly complex. Consequently, the far right, despite having demonstrated its limitations, still holds sway, because it is becoming increasingly difficult for the right to form majorities without it. And on the left, without a broad-based Socialist Party, the fragmentation is considerable, and La France Insoumise has room to make its presence felt. And to spoil the party, there's always the ego of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, a fanatic of the psychopathology of minor differences, more suited to making noise than to contributing.
With a certain naiveté, the Socialist Emmanuel Grégoire, who succeeds Anne Hidalgo in Paris, promises to resist "the unity of the right wing that threatens what is most fragile: the happiness of living together." In other words, the political situation in France expresses the same risk that prevails in Europe: the assault of the extreme right on a right wing that is already sufficiently divided to veer towards authoritarianism. And on each side, the lack of a strong party to set the pace gives life to the extremes. With one difference: that to the left of the Socialists, fragmentation is emphasized, while to the far right, patriotic unity prevails.
3. The extreme right has shown its limitations, the traditional right wing is playing a balancing act, highly fragmented, the Socialist Party is holding on, but no longer has its left wing pulling it along; there is too much noise and some vanity-fueled blunders that derail any attempt to maintain its prominence. At the Élysée Palace, Emmanuel Macron can now only prepare to become, in 2027, when he turns 50, a former president for the rest of his life, having failed in his attempt to build a lasting leadership. His personalism has not served to unite, but rather to fracture. In fact, the legacy of the Fifth Republic, made in the image and likeness of General de Gaulle, is difficult to manage. The edifice was built on the figure of an uncontested president who emanated authority above a rigid two-party system, a figure that collapsed with the arrival of Valéry Giscard d'Estaing and that neither François Mitterrand, nor Jacques Chirac, nor most recently Emmanuel Macron have been able to restore. Probably because they belong to another era.
Now the risk is that the far right will sweep everything away. Since Sunday, that may not seem so easy. The public is resisting. What will the right do in 2027? Will it capitulate to the far right or set the pace? The complexity of its party system distances France from a two-party system like the German or British one, without it ever quite finding a truly distinctive identity. The political landscape is becoming increasingly fragmented, to the greater glory of the far right. And an abstention rate above 40% sends a worrying signal of disaffection.