The economic consequences of peace

I am misappropriating the famous title of Keynes's 1919 book, warning about how the impositions in Germany after the First World War would be impossible to comply with and would lead to a future crisis in Europe, to give you my point of view on the peace plan that Trump wanted to propose to Zelensky to stop the war in Ukraine.

The proposal is simple. First, Trump made a deal with Putin, which has not been disclosed but we can imagine. He quoted the Ukrainian leader when he first made an agreement with the Russian. You don't have to be very clever to guess it. The proposal in Ukraine is: "I'll stop Putin in exchange for 50% of the profits from your country's energy exploitations."

This peace has a price, and it is not exactly half the benefits. The price is Europe. The European Union. Those who are left out of this agreement are us, the Europeans.

Why did Zelensky refuse? Because he is losing the long-term support that Ukraine needs to survive. The American guarantee was: "If I have economic interests in your country, Russia will not attack you." But nobody believes that anymore. Macron went to Washington a few weeks ago to tell him in person: Putin has repeatedly ignored non-aggression or ceasefire agreements.

Trump, a former casino owner, is playing two cards at once. On the one hand, I am convinced that he has proposed to Putin to restore the import-export activity that suits both of them in exchange for leaving Ukraine alone. On the other hand, he has offered Ukraine to stop Putin in exchange for half of its natural resources.

The economic consequences of such a deal are clear: the European Union, which has borne half the cost of supporting Ukraine militarily, is completely out of this deal and will therefore cease to be an ally for Ukraine. The only long-term salvation for Ukrainians, in a global world of big blogs, is to join one of them. Trump's proposal leads to an immediate ceasefire, but it leaves Ukraine without its place in the world in the long term.

Zelensky endured an unprecedented row in the Oval Office because he was defending Europe. The economic consequences of peace would have condemned Ukraine to future demise.

It is time for Europe to show that it is ready to confront Russia on its own.