The dystopia of 10 million

Immigration is the most important issue facing us as a society, and therefore, every contribution to the debate should be welcomed. I applaud, therefore, the publication of an article on the subject last Friday by Comuns MP David Cid entitled "We are 8 million, and if we are 10, even better." Unfortunately, he based his article on a series of poorly substantiated assertions. Due to lack of space, I will limit myself to commenting on two.

One of the strong points of his reasoning was the statement: "The arrival of people [...] to Catalonia has little to do with our productive model. We don't invite them, they flee."

If migration had nothing to do with the country of arrival, but only with the conditions in the countries of departure, migrants would be distributed more or less equally throughout Europe, and, within Spain, across all the various autonomous communities. What we observe is exactly the opposite, and nothing is clearer than comparing the demographic trajectories of the Basque Country and Catalonia.

Between 1955 and 1980, both experienced, in parallel, tremendous growth due to immigration from the rest of Spain. Catalonia grew from 3.5 to 6 million inhabitants, and the Basque Country from 1.2 to 2.1 million. Between 1980 and 2000, and again in parallel, the trends stabilized: Catalonia did not exceed 6.3 million, and the Basque Country practically stagnated. However, from 2000 onward, the trends diverged: while Catalonia had already reached 8.1 million, the Basque Country was still at 2.2 million. It is worth noting that in this latter period, the Basque Country has become richer relative to the Spanish average, while Catalonia has become poorer.

Obviously, migratory pressure from countries in crisis cannot explain this divergence, which is due exclusively to the economic model: while the Basque Country has opted for industry (which represents one of the highest proportions of GDP in Europe), Catalonia has opted for mass tourism, which is why foreign tourist arrivals have fallen from less than 9 million to 2. However, if we affirm that this enormous growth in tourism has taken place thanks to massive immigration of low-skilled personnel who, on the other hand, cannot satisfy the demands of an industry that requires more qualified personnel.

The conclusion is clear: Catalonia will reach 10 million or remain close to 8 million depending on its productive commitment, not on what happens in third countries, because small boats and asylum seekers represent a small proportion of economic immigration.

Let us now consider another sentence by Cid: "The debate about how many Catalans we are or can be [...] is a debate solely functional to the interests of racism and xenophobia because there would be no doubt about reaching 10 million Catalans if they were sons and daughters of fathers and mothers with 8 Catalan surnames."

Let us first look at the solvency of the statement prior to the conjunction becauseThis is, obviously, a foolish assertion. The migration phenomenon can be viewed in many ways, and not just through racism and xenophobia. To begin with, the return of two million immigrants to Catalonia over the next 25 years would have a phenomenal impact on the labor market—squeezing wages—on housing—pushing up its prices—and on public services—straining them in any case and rendering them unviable to the extent that a high proportion of the new arrivals are present. Furthermore, the Catalonia of 10 million demands that, once again, we dedicate ourselves heart and soul to construction, starting with some 30,000 homes per year and continuing with the water and energy infrastructure necessary to support the population increase. Furthermore, let's forget about decarbonization and denuclearization, which are already challenges that are difficult to achieve with the 8.6 million that PROENCAT projected for 2050. In short, beyond xenophobia and racism, there are many reasons to shudder when reading that the large retailer employers' association is promoting immigration because their associates – El Corte Inglés, IKEA, Carrefour, etc. – are having difficulty covering job losses (and would prefer to do so without raising salaries).

Wouldn't we debate it if the ten million figure were reached by ethnic Catalans? Probably not, but above all because adjusting the figure wouldn't be a matter of regulating the labor market—something that, except for ultra-liberals, we all consider legitimate—but rather something that many of us would disagree with regulating.