Yes, it was a baby boomBut it's already deflating. I'm not writing. bluff not in the sense of disappointment or failure, but referring to a generation that is beginning to deflate as it begins (in fact, it has already begun) its withdrawal from the labor market.
The demographic aging of Spain is a phenomenon that has been underway for decades and is now entering a critical phase: the mass retirement of those born during the sixties.
In the next ten years, between four and five million people will transition from employment to retirement. The exact figure is uncertain because some will extend their contribution period and others will combine work with partial retirement.
To this must be added a birth rate at historic lows. Spain has barely 1.2 children per woman, one of the lowest rates in Europe.
This second factor will cause the labor market to lose between two and three million additional people by 2050, according to calculations by the INE.
The direct consequence is an increase in the dependency ratio: today there are approximately 2.3 people contributing to Social Security for every pensioner. By 2050, this ratio will fall to 1.7 if no changes are made.
We must remember that pensions are not paid with accumulated funds. They are paid with the contributions of those who are working today. And if there are fewer and fewer workers and pensioners, the sustainability of the system enters a dangerous zone. It is projected that one and a half people will support one pensioner. And that's where the real problem will begin.
Today, pensions already represent more than 40% of the national budget. The Social Security system is burdened by a structural deficit that, according to AIReF (Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility), exceeds €20 billion annually. And the Spanish government's own estimates place the need for additional funding at more than €500 billion accumulated until 2050. This is no ordinary figure. It is a figure close to half of Spain's GDP.
This is not an ideological critique. It's not a partisan issue. It's a structural warning. Spain urgently needs a national agreement on the pension system. And the sooner it's addressed, the smaller the impact will be.
Increasing contributions or raising the retirement age can provide some relief. That's what we're doing, introducing gradual changes so people don't have to leave the workforce. But it's not enough. We need to bring more people into the labor market. Make senior employment more flexible. Attract talent.
What worries me isn't that there's a challenge. It's that we're ignoring it. As if nothing's happening. As if we don't know a meteor is coming straight for us. But it is. And every year that passes, we're getting closer to impact.
