The 2027 general elections: a Trump effect

The Trump presidency is a disruptive factor for all government formation processes around the world. Especially in Europe, which is the target of strong hostility from Trump, which, due to the war in Ukraine, is highly relevant.

In Europe, the need or lack thereof to strengthen defenses in the face of Putin's aggression and the US withdrawal has deeply divided both the right and left political spaces.

On the right, towards the center, two German Christian Democrats, Merz and Von der Leyen, are emerging as leaders of a "rearmament" of Europe justified by the dual need to help Ukraine and foster strategic independence. Macron and Tusk are also on this path. In contrast, the European far right wants neither. Meloni's takes a more nuanced position: she wants to be Trump's friend but does not want to abandon Ukraine. By the way, imagine the astonishment of a European from 1945 reading a headline from 2025: "Germany rearms and Europe applauds." The world has changed.

On the left, towards the center, Starmer, from the United Kingdom, takes a similar position to Merz-Von der Leyen. As does the German Social Democratic Party. But further left, the reluctance toward rearmament is very pronounced.

As Trump's plans unfold and it becomes clear that the war in Ukraine is not easy to stop, the attitude toward Trump will gain such accentuated centrality that the rift will widen and make it very difficult to form governments that include both sensibilities.

In Spain, we consider the 2027 elections a time horizon that doesn't give rise to the belief that the Trump effect has diminished. If the current majority (the one from the investiture) were to be repeated, the current government could be a repeat. But if the difficulties we already have—derived from electoral competition between very diverse parties—are compounded by differences in defense, the government could be very fragile. A perception that could prevent that majority from materializing in the votes of the electorate. If the majority were PP-Vox, everything would depend on the relative weight of both parties. If Vox is strong, governing will be an ordeal for the PP. It may be impossible. Vox opted for the hardest position of the far right. In the European Parliament, it abandoned Meloni for Orbán, and its servility toward Trump is spectacular. In contrast, the PP has taken a position close to Merz-Von der Leyen. Logically, this could open the door to a grand PP-PSOE coalition. I don't rule it out. The German example is compelling. But given the degree of polarization we've reached, I think it could only happen if it were the only viable majority, numerically and politically. Both the PSOE and the PP will do everything possible to avoid it, starting with trying to perform well in the 27 elections.

The PSOE, with Sánchez's candidacy, will move toward the center and aim to make the current investiture majority possible. The less parliamentary hubbub there is in the next two years (I include not issuing a budget under the concept of hubbub), the better its chances will be.

The PP's situation is more complicated. It doesn't have good leadership. Feijóo is weak and has taken to making it obvious. His condescension toward Mazón and pathetic dependence on Vox are a significant burden.

I think the PP has a better option for its interests: José María Aznar. His positions on the Trump issue have been impeccable and surprisingly belligerent, well in the wake of Merz. Regarding Trump, the contrast with Vox is stark, and Vox is extraordinarily vulnerable on that front: being a Trump puppet will not be a winning strategy for the right. Anti-Trumpism could be for an Aznar who maintains his reputation and international network. He is well-known and respected in the moderate sectors of the Republican Party. I also suspect that his toughness—well-developed in Catalonia—would attract many Vox voters, without losing the support of the business community and a middle class more moderate than him. Friends tell me Aznar hasn't shown interest. However, isn't that how saviors of the nation behave? Or they tell me he wouldn't run unless he was sure of winning. If we replace "sure" with "good chances," why not?

One weak point in the prediction: Aznar lacks the credibility for a Majestic 2. But if, as is likely, the PP's strategy is to go for a PP-Vox majority with the minimum possible Vox weight, Aznar is their best candidate (much better than Ayuso). Keep that in mind.