Symptoms of discomfort

Opinion polls are the political translation of public opinion's mood at a given moment, and the snapshot that emerges from the poll we are publishing these days in ARA is that of a restless society. It could be described as frustrated. The fact is that the symptoms it presents are those of a fearful society that reacts by approaching the most angry. Polls mark social trends, and in the YouGov poll, we see a government with a president who does not inspire enthusiasm, but maintains, albeit slightly declining, the expectations for the PSC, a Republican Left that has hit rock bottom and is on the rise, and a surging far-right. Aliança Catalana is in third place in voting intention, Vox continues to advance, and both threaten Junts.The Junts members are immersed in a serious project crisis and would lose votes from both the right and the left.

Obviously, the moment when the fieldwork was carried out can always influence the responses, and in this case, it coincided with the presentation of Gabriel Rufián's personal project, who has leveraged social media communication and impactful populism, whether in the Congress tribune or in videos with activist Vito Quiles. The result is that it boosts ERC and keeps them in second place.

We will move forward with the publication of the poll, and it is striking that the most popular leaders are Rufian and the leader of Aliança Catalana, Sílvia Orriols, who appear as the best-rated politicians. It would be a mistake to attribute their popularity solely to their communication style. The connection they have achieved with the angriest segment of society requires traditional politics to act with courage and address the many issues that are concerning, especially housing access and immigration, which populists have managed to conflate with insecurity.

Miraculous and seemingly strong leaderships share a lack of nuance, preparation for public management, and responses when questions become sophisticated and delve into the details of putting them into practice. That's why they prefer tirades on social media or parliamentary platforms over the precise answers that journalists from serious media outlets formulate with their demanding readers.

Rufián's popularity is a double-edged sword within ERC, which can benefit from it, but cannot rely on the predictability of a lone wolf. Rufián has long been going his own way regarding the party's leadership, does not participate in decision-making bodies, and does not even speak with his colleagues in the parliamentary group in Madrid. It is one thing to be able to attract attention on social media and quite another to read bills and defend amendments with knowledge of the issues to be addressed.

The trend shown by the poll is worrying for the future of Junts per Catalunya. Its voters are abandoning ship for Aliança Catalana and also for ERC, and its leaders are losing magnetism. Junts is trying to regain the ideological profile of a center-right party in Madrid, but it is not clear that this will be enough for its voters, frustrated by the outcome of the Process, orphaned by the exile of its undisputed leader, and perhaps nostalgic for the negotiating style of the old convergence. The strategy of pacts and confrontation in Madrid requires some success, perhaps the immigration control policy that is being negotiated with the PSOE. But the fact is that they are harmed by the confrontation and at the same time by the support of Pedro Sánchez's government, and votes are going in two directions. Perhaps a return of President Puigdemont would change the perspective, but that is not the situation today.

The rapid growth of immigration –especially that which does not coincide in customs and religion with that of the majority of Catalans– in some Catalan towns has become an issue to be addressed with courage and common sense from the public sphere. The strain on the welfare state's services, mixed with Islamophobia, is a dangerous cocktail for social cohesion that is already perfectly evident in the polls. In the absence of addressing these issues with courage, realism, and by setting limits on xenophobes openly by the traditional parties, support is increasing for those who respond with anger and supremacism. It is clear that base passions are understood much faster than the need to pay taxes to ensure cohesion and social mobility, transparency in management, the demand for rights and duties, and the defense of a common civic framework based on the laws that bind us all. If parliamentary opposition were to fall into the hands of the far-right, it would be disastrous for political debate in Catalonia. 

It is clear that polls only show trends, but those that are observed are not reassuring for those who want a prosperous, cohesive and non-polarized country.