The public takeover bid (OPA) that BBVA has launched for Banco Sabadell is not just another financial transaction: it could have a significant impact on the configuration of the banking system in Catalonia and Spain. The President of the Spanish government has announced the opening of a takeover bid.a public consultation An unprecedented opportunity to gather the opinions of citizens, entities, and organizations on whether this operation is in the public interest. It is an opportunity for a decision of this magnitude to be made with a strategic vision, taking into account its economic and territorial impact.
Below are five reasons why this transaction poses significant risks to competition, access to credit, employment, systemic stability, and the ability to meet future challenges:
1. Catalonia already suffers from a high concentration of banking, and a takeover bid would make matters worse. The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), which measures market concentration, currently stands at around 2,300 points in Catalonia. Since 2000, international standards have already indicated a significant level of concentration. With the merger, this index would rise to 2,888 points, placing Catalonia among the regions with the highest banking concentration in Europe. By comparison, Germany has an HHI of only 330 points, indicating a much more diversified and competitive system. 74% of bank branches would remain in the hands of just two entities: CaixaBank and the new BBVA-Sabadell. A concentration that, in many countries, would set off regulatory alarm bells.
2. The epicenter of risk: less credit and under less favorable conditions. Econometric models show that less banking competition tends to generate higher intermediation margins and higher interest rates. Fewer market players mean fewer options and, therefore, less negotiating power for businesses and individuals. According to Pimec, this merger could lead to an 8% reduction in credit availability, the equivalent of more than €54 billion. This would particularly affect SMEs and those sectors or territories with fewer financing options.
3. Cost synergies = office closures and staff adjustments. When we talk about "synergies," we often refer to the elimination of duplication: offices, systems, human resources... Bank mergers in Spain have, in some cases, resulted in cuts of up to 50% in management structures. In this case, Pimec estimates that up to 883 branches could be closed and more than 10,500 jobs lost. These effects would have a particular impact in rural areas and on groups with less access to digital services.
4. The value of proximity and knowledge of the territory. Sabadell has historically been a key bank in financing small and medium-sized businesses, especially in Catalonia and the Valencian Community. Its knowledge of the region, the productive structure, and the needs of SMEs allows it to better adapt its lending criteria. Its integration into BBVA—with headquarters and decision-making structures outside Catalonia—could limit this capacity. The homogenization of policies and criteria could lead to a loss of adaptability, reducing financing options for projects with tight margins or longer horizons.
5. Systemic risk increases. Large bank mergers increase the risk that certain entities will become "too big to fail" (too big to fail). This can have a negative moral effect: institutions that can take on excessive risks, confident that if problems arise, they will be bailed out to avoid a systemic crisis. A sound financial system must not only be robust but also diverse, balanced, and well-regulated. Excessive concentration can diminish its long-term resilience.
Conclusion: Competition is key to reindustrialization and economic transformation. We are at a decisive moment for reindustrialization and the transition toward a more sustainable and digital economic model. This process requires a diverse financial system capable of offering tailored, specialized, and locally rooted solutions. In a highly concentrated environment, options are reduced, conditions worsen, and responsiveness is compromised.
BBVA's takeover bid for Sabadell isn't just a transaction between two entities: it's a decision that could affect the future of the productive fabric, the banking system, and the economic model we want to preserve as a society. There's still work to be done in the public interest.
