Send troops, disobey Trump, or isolate ourselves from the world
On January 6th, Pedro Sánchez skipped the prestigious Military Easter Parade in favor of another, undoubtedly more significant, military event in Paris. There, the Coalition of Volunteers, a group of some thirty countries—mostly European, but also including Canada, Turkey, Japan, and Australia—met to establish the framework for the deployment of peacekeeping forces in Ukraine once a ceasefire is reached. The coalition was an initiative of French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who lead the group and will share its coordination. The coalition was launched in March and has gradually added new members. The United States attended for the first time as guests, represented by Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, and Special Envoy Steve Witkoff. This coalition plans to deploy once the ceasefire is signed, something that is currently uncertain, to ensure, as Macron stated, that the agreement does not constitute "a surrender of Ukraine" and to prevent further Russian offensive actions despite the agreement.
It was initially agreed that the United States would be responsible for monitoring and ensuring compliance with the agreement, in coordination with the coalition, but it would be the coalition that would send troops, on a voluntary basis, to the ground to train and "regenerate" the Ukrainian army and secure control by land, sea, and air. In other words, there would be very few NATO troops in Ukraine, but there would be troops from NATO member countries present. It is a general agreement that now needs to be ratified by the countries involved and still requires finalization of the exact operational details to clarify precisely what is being discussed. In any case, on January 6th, the Spanish president indicated that he was prepared to send troops to this mission and that he would begin talks with parliamentary groups that same week to secure congressional support for the operation.
Until now, the Spanish army has participated in many NATO operations on peacekeeping missions in various countries. In that sense, it's nothing new. But the current context is very different, especially considering Trump's ambitions regarding Greenland, which could provoke a serious crisis within NATO. Everything suggests that these coalition troops could be the embryo of a future European army independent of NATO and, therefore, of the United States, but that's not entirely clear either. Sánchez will meet primarily with the People's Party (PP) in this round of talks. And the PP leader, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, has already warned that they will not support the government without concrete proposals. However, without PP support, an agreement is unlikely because this is a difficult debate among the left-wing coalition partners. Sánchez is playing the international card strongly; he has also opened the door to sending troops to Gaza, and he is trying to walk a tightrope between fulfilling commitments to European and Atlantic partners without succumbing to Trump's demands for spending and sacrifice. For now, he has already disobeyed Trump on this issue, but it will be difficult for him to isolate himself from other European allies and forgo sending troops. A thorough debate is needed on whether the state should join the rising militarism in the world, but it is not clear that there is time for it.