So, will Pedro Sánchez's government finally fall? The circumstances are dire, but they can create illusions for those who act swiftly. Although it seems the ground is crumbling beneath his feet, Sánchez is a born survivor, and fear of the far right remains a driving force for votes. What is undeniable is that the Spanish government is weaker than ever, more dependent than ever on the votes of Catalan and Basque nationalists—among others—and that this dependence may no longer be merely tactical: some voices on the Spanish left are beginning to understand that there is no middle ground between the authoritarian right and the plurinational left. Iván Redondo has written that "amnesty, if it becomes a plurinational driving force, is the only instrument that could stop the authoritarian element in Spain that seeks to capture our democracy." Words words, Yes, but it's also a symptom. Some sectors of the Spanish left may have understood that it's time to take risks that years ago seemed unthinkable. Perhaps we're not yet ready for self-determination, nor for confederation, ultimate goals that the pro-independence movement shouldn't abandon. A constitutional reform isn't even advisable with the current balance of power in Congress. But we can take a leap forward in the national recognition of Catalonia and confront traditional taboos, such as its international presence (sports teams), its own tax system, or the preeminence of the Catalan language through an organic law that defuses the periodic attacks from the judiciary. If all this is done properly, it will be irreversible, even for a future PP government, and we'll be a few steps closer to the finish line.
In this context, Míriam Nogueras has called on the 14 pro-independence members of parliament (those from Junts and ERC) to close ranks and pressure Sánchez in the right direction. The Republicans' response has been cold and full of reproaches. It should come as no surprise that Rufián reminds the Junts members of their tactical missteps: they began by delegitimizing the negotiation process, then claimed they were the only ones who knew how to negotiate, and finally decided to break with the PSOE; a few weeks later, they are asking to renegotiate, but in a coordinated manner. Too much posturing. But Junts could also compile its list of grievances, and this crossfire is already tiring voters, and besides, it serves no purpose. Shouldn't they really be taking advantage of such an undeniably favorable opportunity? Never before have two parties as weakened as the current Junts and ERC been in a position to set the agenda for the Sánchez government... and, incidentally, for the Isla government, which is observing the situation with justified concern.
Catalans are sometimes accused of being an apolitical people, of being incapable of understanding the true essence of power. At least in 2017, we confused our capacity for coercion with important but not as effective assets such as suffrage, the capacity for popular mobilization, or the universal rationale of the right to self-determination. We think that power is a fickle and atmospheric substance, the embodiment of a mood, but no: the can as a noun, which in my Catalan is said by pronouncing the final 'r', is equivalent to can as a verb, with a silent 'r'. To exercise power is equivalent to to be able to do Let things happen. And today, in 2025, with fewer votes and less mobilization than in 2017, Catalan separatism can have more power than ever, because without its votes in Madrid, Pedro Sánchez's government is doomed and acting desperately. If Junts and ERC (both, or one of them) fail to grasp the exceptional opportunity before them, their mistake will join the ranks of the great missed opportunities in our unfortunate history as a political project.
