Orriols grows in "normalized" Catalonia
A recent poll has raised alarm bells about the meteoric rise of the Catalan Alliance (from 2 to 19 seats), obtained primarily at the expense of Junts. Some may rejoice for tactical convenience or for the pleasure of seeing the members of the junts in trouble, but if so, it's a mistake. The rise of AC isn't just a problem for Puigdemont's party; it's a problem for the country, and more specifically for Catalan nationalism. Nor is there any need to beat ourselves up too much, as this is a global phenomenon, and it was difficult for Catalonia to escape. Perhaps now some will realize the merit of the independence movement, during the Trial, in building a mass movement so far removed from the identitarian and pro-fascist impulses that have become fashionable throughout Europe.
The blatant errors of Junts and ERC after October 1st explain, in part, the rise of this new independence movement. But the fact that the Process, despite its peaceful and democratic nature, was repressed with beatings, imprisonment, and dirty war has also caused many people to lose faith in the power of the vote and gradualism. Furthermore, the decline of the Catalan language, in parallel with the overflow of migration, has triggered fears of the dissolution of collective identity. If this happens in solid states with powerful cultures like Spain or France, it is inevitable that it will also happen in a country like ours, deprived of the tools to maintain social and cultural cohesion. And all this has served as an alibi for a layer of xenophobia that was already festering long before, and which the Process—I insist—had managed to keep at bay.
If the poll's predictions are correct, the independence movement may lose all operational capacity because AC's proposals make strategic agreements with democratic Catalanism impossible. If the independence movement were to return to power thanks to the far right, it would be selling its soul to the devil and renouncing the principles of more than a century of tradition. In Spain, they aren't so fussy, as the PP governs with the far right wherever necessary, and even Podemos has preferred to vote with Vox rather than agree to the transfer of immigration powers to the Generalitat, which reminds us that the democratic spirit of the Spanish people never overcomes certain mental barriers. So much the worse for them.
It's only natural that all eyes are now on Junts, which is the party with the most to lose. Puigdemont's party wants to return to leading the center-right, which leads them to strike certain balances and address thorny issues, such as emigration and the growth model. For Catalan nationalism, and for the country as a whole, it would be good if Junts could do what it needs to do without hearing itself told every day that it's playing into the hands of the extremists. Contrary to what some left-wing leaders might think, the country's political balance requires a healthy democratic and pro-Catalan right. If not, we'll see what the alternative is.
If the far right (AC and Vox) gains more than 30 seats in the Catalan Parliament, and if the PP and Vox also govern in Madrid, the situation in Catalonia could become explosive. Before facing the inevitable clash, it would be desirable for the design of the country's future to emerge from an agreement between the central parties in parliamentary life: CUP. For this to happen, the Socialists must understand that they cannot govern alone, and above all—and this is the most complicated aspect—they must accept that the statutory and constitutional framework has been a straitjacket for too many years, one that does not represent the will of the majority, but rather a false normality, as fragile as a house of cards. If we don't accept this, trigger-happy populism will have a freeway ahead, and lamentations will become a display of cynicism.