The events that have happened in the last two decades of the last century and the first decades of this one, and especially in recent months, have convinced me that we are entering a new era in our history. I hope it will be one of progress, and that it will allow us, or in some cases, force us, to change important aspects of our personal lives and social relations, both locally and globally. The difficulties, misunderstandings, and conflicts we are now experiencing, along with the uncertainties about the future, affect our peace of mind, make our coexistence difficult, and destroy trust in many politicians. If we do not collectively adapt to the reality of the new era, there will be no progress, and the current difficulties will only grow.
1. Safety and well-being. I will analyze only one very specific aspect of all these changes; one that is currently in the news: security. I ask how to improve the security of Europeans, a fundamental component of our well-being. I do this by analyzing two aspects: a) Anticipating what opportunities Europeans might have for collaboration or confrontation with the current strong countries in the economic or political fields in the coming years, and then deciding what our orientations should be to facilitate collaboration and avoid the dangers of confrontation. b) Anticipating what new types ofarms They can ensure our defense, since I don't think we are the ones who provoke confrontations, and see how these measures can be financed without jeopardizing the continuity of current policies related to the welfare state and the reduction of inequality.
2. New global panorama. The distribution of power in the world has been shifting from what are now the states, to higher dimensional entities that I call large states (USA, China, Russia...) or groupings of states (the EU, the Global South, NATO, etc.). These changes have caused the role of many of today's small states (Canada, Argentina, Germany, the United Kingdom, or Spain, etc.) to be dramatically reduced, unless they have large reserves of some important natural resource such as oil, gas, or minerals. This loss of influence has already begun and has been accepted. We must reposition ourselves in the new era that has begun.
It is quite clear that if we current members of the EU want to continue to have a certain important role in the global context, we must either become a great state Or we should join one of the three existing ones. Until now, it seemed that the path might be a closer alliance with the US and a strengthening of NATO. This seems to have become more difficult given the way things are developing there, and therefore perhaps the only path left is the definitive transformation of the EU into a new federal state with a significant population, army, and economic power, which would continue to maintain the internal diversity born of its history, but with a political unity similar to that of the larger states. It's a step further than the single market, borders, and currency. If any of the 27 doesn't want to, they could leave...
3. Defense capacity and its financing. The urgency of financing an increase in security is essential and complicated, but I believe there are two aspects that can make it less costly. First, what is needed is to increase the joint security of the entire EU, but investments should not be made in individual members but rather in the entire EU, and this will avoid a lot of duplication. A portion of the new resources the EU will need will be resources that many of its current members already have, and which can be made available to central authorities. And second, we must not forget that when we now talk aboutarms We are no longer talking only about tools to kill people or destroy buildings, but wars will increasingly be waged in an immaterial space where the availability of services is affected, reality and the distribution of information are manipulated, and generative AI is used. This means that many of the investments will be in tools that can be used for other non-war purposes and to improve the economy while they are not needed for military purposes. militaryThere will be no need to invest in tools like the current ones, which, aside from their deterrent purpose, we all believe are best if they never have to be used.
An even more positive aspect. If the right decisions are made, investment, and especially the development of the necessary new weapons, can greatly help improve Europe's scientific and technological capabilities, which in recent years have lagged far behind those of the United States and China. Investment in defense can provide secondary support for a policy that increases the continent's technological capacity. Historically, investments in defense have often been at the heart of countries' technological growth. Now they could also serve this second purpose.
