In economics, and in history in general, prevailing situations or patterns, the power structures and positions of each party can be sustained for many years. Decades. Even centuries. Sometimes for such long periods that it seems that change will also require a prolonged period.
But the past has shown us countless times that this is not the case. The Roman Empire, the Visigoths in Spain, or the Arab occupation are just a few examples. Political and social hierarchies and systems that, like the Visigoths, collapsed in just two or three years after three centuries of standing—that's a long way off.
The US tariffs are not as relevant as the change of tactics towards fellow travelers, allies, and partners. The United States, part of the UN, of NATO, called West Along with Europe and the United Kingdom, they are no longer interested in this collaborative scheme. The reeds germinate and grow in record time. But that's only what we see, because underground, for years, they develop the entire structure that will later allow them to grow at an incredible speed. Similarly, this house of cards that is now collapsing has long since weakened. For almost three decades, the United States has been able to maintain its imbalances thanks to a strong dollar. Without the dollar, everything would have been very different. Because currencies react quickly to negative international trade balances to compensate, through monetary means, for the imbalances in the movement of goods between countries.
There have been too many years of foreign debt and budget deficits. The United States has endured thanks to the enormous foreign investment it receives. The dollars it freely returns to the country through investment. But those dollars don't necessarily create domestic wealth. They do, in part, but many come from companies in other countries that take the profits generated in the country.
Trump may seem uneducated and lacking in manners. But he's no fool. He needs a change in the way things operate, and the only way to achieve that is by fostering a new economic order. A change in the game of musical chairs. He must undo the dependencies that have been created. Because every system is based on relationships and roles. What's coming isn't just tariffs. What's coming is a new economic order.
