How many more civilian deaths will Putin's war cost?

Don't get your hopes up. Peace is still a long way off. What we now know is that a slight possibility has appeared, as Ukraine and Russia agree on a first draft agreement in the midst of a bloody war that continues to cause deaths, many of them civilians. The document on the table right now in talks between the Ukrainian and Russian delegations has as its main elements Russia's request for Ukraine's future military neutrality – which would include renouncing joining NATO and renouncing having foreign military bases or receiving foreign weaponry, and reducing its armed forces – and the recognition of Crimea and the Donbass as Russian territories. In exchange, there would be a ceasefire and Putin's troops would withdraw. Ukraine, on the other hand, could agree to forget about joining NATO, but demands real security guarantees and does not see territorial renunciations as acceptable. In spite of the draft, therefore, the agreement remains, for the moment, a distant possibility.

Given the difficulties of the invasion, which is progressing very slowly, and the need to seek ways to mitigate the impact of international economic sanctions, Putin may simply be speculating, using the talks to buy time. In fact, the fact that this Wednesday there was a first high-level contact between Washington and Moscow could also hint in this direction: the call between Jake Sullivan, national security adviser to the President of the United States, and his Russian counterpart, Nikolai Patrushev. This rapprochement would at the same time seek to counteract the emotional intervention of the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, in front of the US Congress, followed by the announcement of a new multimillion-dollar US military aid package for Ukraine, made by President Joe Biden himself, according to whom, however, the confrontation will be long and Putin is "a war criminal". However, on Zelensky's repeated request to apply the no-fly zone over Ukraine, which could be decisive in military terms and in terms of saving civilian lives, Western powers are for the moment responding with a resounding silence because of the risk of global confrontation and Putin's nuclear reaction.

All wars eventually end at a negotiating table. The question is to know how many more deaths this one will cost, because, while the talks are taking place, bombs continue to fall on Ukrainian cities and villages. For the moment, the latest civilian casualty toll verified by the UN Human Rights Office in the first 20 days of the invasion stands at 726 dead – with at least 104 women and 52 children – and 1,174 wounded. But the UN itself warns that the real figure may be much higher, because it has not been possible to document deaths in areas such as, for example, the city of Mariupol, where the infernal siege the population is suffering saw another dramatic episode this Wednesday with the Russian attack on a theatre where 1,200 people were taking shelter, while at the same time, in the capital, the invading army killed 10 people waiting in line to buy bread. The drama provoked by Putin does not stop.