It could happen When the wave was irresistible, when independence was defended by those who don't remember it now. At that time, Pere Navarro's PSC, out of respect for its founding principles and under pressure from its Catalanist wing, presented itself to the electorate proposing a "legal and agreed-upon consultation." Later, it dared to break voting discipline in the Congress of Deputies, in defense of the referendum. Celestino Corbacho called for the re-establishment of the Catalan federation of the PSOE. But in the end, it was Catalanists like Maragall, Elena, and Geli who left, and the party suffered a drain of votes in several directions. Miquel Iceta's PSOE colleagues told him that the State would never negotiate, that matters would be resolved the hard way, and that if both the PSC and (especially) the PSOE didn't get their act together, they would suffer the consequences. Iceta, therefore, returned the party to the constitutional fold.
It could happen When Iniciativa (ICV) was overwhelmed by the 15-M movement and the crisis, the CUP and the Constituent Process of Arcadi Oliveres and Teresa Forcades emerged, forging a new left-wing pro-independence pole. Ada Colau, a media-savvy anti-eviction leader, was quicker than anyone and put together a municipal list that initially declared itself pro-independence (Colau voted yes-yes in the 9-N referendum). The CUP was supposed to be on this list, with David Fernández as number 3, but the Barcelona Cuperos, with great shortsightedness, vetoed it, and within Colau's new invention, the alliance with the emerging Pablo Iglesias prevailed, defending plural sovereignties, non-subordinate constituent processes, and other nonsense; just the right dose of ambiguity to keep things moving while it wasn't clear which way the Catalan balance was leaning. It didn't take long: in the following municipal elections, Colau lost the election to Ernest Maragall, but retained the mayor's office with the votes of the PSC and Ciutadans. And in 2017, when the impasse arose, she thought time had proved her right.
It could happen When CiU collapsed, CDC found itself besieged by corruption and decided to refound the party and change its name. Many former Convergents saw that this would go wrong and let it go; others thought the best strategy was a bear hug with ERC to form a coalition and perhaps even a single center-left sovereigntist party, in the Scottish style. ERC would have agreed if it had been at the helm, but the real helmsman was Artur Mas, who, despite his party's crisis, was the president of the November 9th referendum and had the power to set up ballot boxes. A coalition was formed, Junts pel Sí, which won a landslide but insufficient victory, because Mas was also the president of the cuts, and that drove thousands of voters to the CUP, which held the key to the situation and forced Puigdemont to replace Mas. From then on, reproaches, defections, and the constant threat from Madrid and the economic powers led to the impasse of October 2017.
And it could still happenHowever, if on October 3, after the international success of the referendum, of the indignation against the police and against the king, Puigdemont and Junqueras had seen that it was the moment to take advantage of the Spanish confusion to accelerate, and face the inevitable conflict with the streets overflowing, or to win an election to call an election with a valuable extension.
On at least these four occasions, the opportunity to change the course of events was missed. One wonders if there were four shots hitting the post—a case of unprecedented bad luck—or if, as is often the case in history, things happened this way because they couldn't have happened any other way. Have a happy Diada this Thursday.
