Europe and the era of insecurity

The Baltic republics have joined the European electricity grid this weekend and have abandoned the last umbilical cord that still tied them to their Soviet-era past. It is a disconnection of geopolitical dimensions, loaded with symbolism; another step towards a continental integration that requires real gestures and spiritual victories, but also strategic autonomy and less dependencies.

The European Union remains trapped in its own dependencies.

Between 2019 and 2023, arms imports from the United States by the European Union grew by up to 55%. Also 50% of natural gas imported in 2023 came from its transatlantic partner. A partner now turned into a source of instability in the face of a horizon of growing geopolitical tensions between the United States and China, threats of economic coercion by Washington and with the war in Ukraine pending the will of Donald Trump.

With the United States becoming a global risk factor, according to the latest report from the Munich Security Conference, the world is forced to rethink alliances and securities. Donald Trump has decided to bury the American peace by a foreign policy made up, for the moment, of overreactions, executive orders and threats. In Trump's transactional world, the continuation of military and financial aid to Ukraine may depend on obtaining the exploitation of the rare earth mines in the country (as is being negotiated at the moment), and the immediate future of Gaza and the forced expulsion of its inhabitants can be announced as if it were a project.

We are in a world of insecurities. With a European Union trapped between threats from the United States, Russian aggression and dependencies on China. A European Union that sees its traditional ally underestimating it, sometimes considering it as a rival and sometimes as a vassal. Awaiting the German elections on February 23 and the electoral strength of parties and governments that have embraced the assault on American democracy as an agenda to follow, the EU needs to accelerate its own transformation, but not at any price. The normalisation of the use of force and the feeling of insecurity has become the landing strip for protectionist policies, arms races and fear-mongering. This was summed up months ago by the until recently Secretary General of the European External Action Service, Stefano Sannino, in a meeting at Cidob, when he admitted that "idealism does not exist in the European Union; there are interests." "Political will comes from necessity" this senior European diplomat stressed. But necessity has also led this weakened Union to sacrifice principles and values ​​that had justified its existence.

The security agenda has been imposed as the only strategy and has eaten up the space for politics and diplomacy in many conflicts, despite the ceasefire promises that come from Donald Trump's disjointed speeches.

In this scenario, Europe, "whether it likes it or not," will have to assume its leadership, claimed last week the historian Timothy Snyder in a meeting with journalists in Barcelona. "I do not believe at all that Trump and Putin can guarantee a systemic solution for Ukraine because Putin does not want it and Trump does not know how to do it," said Snyder, "but I think there will be a ceasefire that can turn Ukraine into the Korean peninsula or West Germany." The European security architecture will be decided in the possible negotiations that will open in Ukraine in the coming months. The trip of Trump's national security adviser, Mike Waltz, to Europe this week and the participation of Vice President JD Vance in the Munich Security Conference will begin to give clues about the diplomatic movements underway and the terms on which the United States is considering this negotiation. That is why it is essential that European leaders are capable of agreeing on the political timing of a negotiation that requires much more than the reinforcement of the defense budgets of the Twenty-Seven. Above all, it will need money for reconstruction, political commitment to enlarge the Union and, above all, the ability to influence the United States, which has so far been completely disconnected from European reality and priorities.