Europe against the barbarians
The deeper Donald Trump sinks into the Iranian mire, the more we Europeans must regain the pride of being part of such an imperfect and complex club.
American citizens are beginning to react slowly to the operation of emptying their democratic system while Donald Trump boasts of his encyclopedic ignorance and a petty sense of politics that has led him to purge any spark of independent thought from his entourage. The big difference between Trump's first and second term is that the administration, the technicians of diplomacy and the American army, who at the time stood up to him or stopped his blunders by putting obstacles in his way, have today resigned or been dismissed and replaced by a claque.
The chronicles explaining how decisions are made in the Situation Room are shameful due to the frivolity with which life, death, the economy, and the precarious balances of such a complex region as the Middle East are played with. It is still surprising how the infantilism of a hypertrophied ego and video game culture become criteria that determine life or death.
The disdain for diplomacy, for balances, for the pursuit of human well-being and even for good manners has reached its paroxysm in a country that had once been Europe's ally. Today, Europe must become independent and accept that ceasing to be a protectorate has a price, but that the cost of remaining a minor is still higher. Today, the European Union has a great opportunity, and we Europeanists must demand that it be seized without delay. Without naivety, but without excuses, the twenty-seven must coordinate their vision for the future in a world that has changed and will not return.
Europe is late and slow, but it continues to be the best of all possible worlds, and public opinion is beginning to see what the consequences of renouncing its values would be through the disintegration that Trump's mandate signifies. It is not just about having nuclear capability, but about seeing how the superpower's credibility is diluted, prices rise, markets go crazy, and unpredictability and spectacle begin to overshadow scandals and mismanagement. Not to mention the degradation of public debate, polarized and simplified.
When social media and MAGA enthusiasts turn against Trump, the president is only one price hike away from his mandate being questioned. This does not mean that the Democrats have won the midterm elections, but it does mean that Trump should definitively dismantle democracy if he wants to avoid truly uncertain elections for himself. Using patriotism to hide incompetence is becoming increasingly difficult in the White House.
When Trump threatens to leave NATO, he disregards that the decision depends on a broad majority of Congress, but Europeans should understand the message crudely and opt for the internationally shared institutional architecture that has brought us decades of peace. A new impetus is needed for international organizations, with recognition of the new protagonists of this world that has long since shifted towards the Pacific, but the recovery of diplomacy and discussion frameworks is essential.
The European Union can no longer procrastinate. Freedom has a price, and energy autonomy cannot come from buying gas from the US after fleeing Russian oil, nor can its defense guarantee depend on a partner who relies on no one to start a war with unpredictable consequences. A war not explained to partners, nor to its own public opinion, and without a clear strategy.
Europeans will have to grow up and defend the values of an imperfect, slow Europe, where European policy is too conditioned by twenty-seven agendas. The EU is very imperfect, but it is based on trade, peaceful relations, consensus among actors, international and community law, understanding between peoples of different languages and cultures, and a democratic foundation and respect for human rights.
A step forward that guarantees energy and defense autonomy involves ending unanimities and streamlining decisions by the hard core willing to make more Europe in terms of cohesion and cession of national sovereignty. It also involves ceasing to belittle ourselves before predators. Neither Trump nor Putin represent European values. What needs to be asked is whether the EU leaders represent them, and only voters can answer this question.
Europe is about "values and trust" and perhaps, in the words of Josep Borrell, the integrating force that the euro once was will have to be the integration of defense in this hostile world. We will have to abandon the "psychology of weakness", as was said yesterday at the Cidob's War&Peace seminar. To begin with, the countries of Southern Europe will have to realize that if the EU fails in Ukraine, no defense project will have credibility against Russia. It is time to take action, to get out of the mire of a pessimism that only benefits chaos. As always, the question is not the what but the how, and that is what Cidob leads.