A dangerous window
Shortly after the 2023-24 election cycle, which granted regional and municipal power to the PSC, I wrote in this newspaper that the Socialists would occupy the center of the Catalan political chessboard for a long time, and that their rivals should concentrate on replacing fragmentation with regrouping, at least from a tactical point of view. I even wondered if Catalan sovereignty had already reached its Alamo.That is, at the point where the only option is to close ranks and dig in against a stronger enemy. At that moment, it seemed to me that this desperate solution was premature, because it meant abandoning decades of inclusive Catalanism with a desire for hegemony.
Where are we right now? No closer to the Alamo.Despite some obvious warning signs: sociologically, Catalonia is even more diverse—and therefore, the indigenous element and its own language are weaker—and the appeal of Catalan nationalism is questionable because, while the country remains strong in some fundamental aspects of its character, such as community spirit and entrepreneurial capacity, it lacks consensus on other agreements that would guarantee the well-being and progress of the majority of the population. There is no consensus either to increase the level of self-government, to reformulate the bilateral relationship with the State, or to obtain fairer funding (despite the partial progress made due to agreements between the minority PSOE and the pro-independence movement).
Ten years ago, a similar state of affairs led to the proposal of the new Statute and the emergence of sovereignism as a majority electoral force, but the sad outcome of the Process (which Albert Sánchez Piñol has just novelized in allegorical form in After the shipwreckThis has meant that, in the present, the response to the impasse is quite different. Disillusioned separatism has risen to prominence, become less porous, and, in part, succumbed to the easy rhetoric of the far right. And Spanish nationalism has also radicalized around Vox, which means that the Socialists, still in the middle of the board, move in an unstable equilibrium, suspicious of the Catalan independence flags and at odds with neo-Francoism, and tying their future to that of Pedro Sánchez, in a kind of ever-increasing scourge, because the PSOE is becoming more and more powerful, because the PSOE is simply a double embrace.
The crisis in the management of public services (which is undermining Salvador Illa's narrative, and will do so even more if there is no budget) and the aggressiveness of the Spanish right open a window of opportunity for Catalan independence to increase its influence and share of power... provided its narrative stops backtracking on key issues. This will, of course, be more difficult if its leaders repeat the same slogans from 2017, which today sound, unfortunately, like deception. A new pro-independence narrative should certainly set negotiated sovereignty as its goal. But until the necessary majority is achieved, while the Catalan Socialist Party (PSC) dominates the center ground, it is necessary to use democratic force to drag it toward a new consensus with these objectives: reforming Catalonia's production model, rethinking Barcelona, establishing its own tax system, defending the Catalan language at any cost, and improving the management of public services. The PSC can refuse, if it wants; but the independence movement cannot stop proposing these things. If everything is left until the day after a hypothetical unilateral declaration of independence, Junts, ERC, and the CUP will have failed from the outset. In politics, timing is what separates life and death, and a window of opportunity can also be an invitation to self-destruction.