Armenia strengthens its European bet; how will the EU respond?

Armenia wants to continue moving closer to the European Union. Like Moldova almost a year ago, the ideological battle between Moscow and Brussels has marked Sunday's elections in this small country in the South Caucasus and has endorsed the current government of Nikol Pashinyan. The prime minister's party, Civil Contract, has won practically 50% of the votes. The three pro-Russian parties have garnered 37% of the votes and have strengthened their presence in Parliament, led by Armenian Strong, the formation of Russian-Armenian billionaire Samvel Karapetyan, currently under house arrest for allegedly advocating the overthrow of the government.

These were the first legislative elections since the traumatic military defeat against Azerbaijan in 2023, and the campaign has been dirty and highly polarized. The country is divided, but not along the left-right axis, but by deep divergences around security, identity, and foreign policy. Government supporters advocate strengthening ties with the EU as part of democratic reform and strategic autonomy. Opponents present European integration as a weakening of traditional alliances and a threat to national identity, which has already translated into concessions to Azerbaijan and an intensification of negotiations with Turkey.

Pashinyan has won, but has lost political capital. “With this opposition, a large part of the responsibility for holding the government accountable will continue to fall on civil society and the media,” explained an Armenian civil rights activist from Yerevan on Monday.

Armenia is a fragile democracy, with a judiciary awaiting reforms and high levels of corruption. But it is also a country with a very strong civil society.

Sunday's election results are, above all, a message in favor of diversification. The country needs to open new trade routes. It needs alternatives and time to diversify an economy still heavily dependent on Russia. “Without opening up to the region, we cannot disconnect from Russia,” admitted a senior official from the ruling party a few months ago.

Pashinyan's critics have not forgiven him for making concessions in favor of peace with Azerbaijan, with the signing of an agreement sponsored by Donald Trump, nor for seeking a process of "normalization" in relations with Turkey, which has removed the memory of the genocide from the equation. At the same time, however, the defeat in Nagorno-Karabakh also led to a profound loss of confidence in Moscow as a guarantor of security and facilitated Yerevan's turn towards the West and the challenge to decades of official narrative built on the idea that Armenia cannot survive without Russia.

"Armenia is a country in the midst of a hybrid war," a prominent member of Pashinyan's government assured a few months ago. The election campaign has reinforced this feeling: oligarchs flown in from Russia, money transfers that cryptocurrencies have made harder to track, voter mobilization, and a long repertoire of disinformation and fake videos in a totally polarized media system.

However, the Russia of 2026 is not the same as before the invasion of Ukraine. Its ability to project power currently depends on the end of a war of attrition with an uncertain horizon.

Precisely for this reason, Sunday's results also represent a strategic opportunity for the EU. The time has come for the Union to "have a plan" for Armenia, as one of Pashinyan's negotiators demanded of a group of European experts with whom he met in Yerevan a few months ago.

As always, the unity of the Twenty-Seven is lost in internal agendas. France, with a large Armenian diaspora, is the most influential country in the area. Poland and Lithuania – with their own post-Soviet experience – clearly support Armenia's rapprochement, while Viktor Orbán's Hungary had been, until now, the most reluctant to strengthen relations. Other countries, such as Italy, which depend on Azerbaijan's gas, are more hesitant in their support. 

"It is strange that countries that have no interest in joining the EU have a better relationship with Brussels than those of us who aspire to be candidates," lamented a government member. The Union's transactional turn, driven to diversify access to hydrocarbons, has played in favor of strengthening trade agreements with the autocratic regime in Baku, which has further exacerbated the gap that has long separated the EU's discourse from its real commitment.

Brussels is an actor on the ground, but it is the Trump administration that capitalizes on political influence. China seeks to strengthen its presence in the region, and the war in Iran has increased the sense of vulnerability in countries that feel trapped at an increasingly volatile geopolitical crossroads.