Sometimes the horse of history passes us by, raising so much dust that we cannot see it. This is the case of this sinister week for Europe. In a few days, Ukraine has been sold out, the US has ceased to be our preferred ally and Russia has been rehabilitated by Trump, with the Saudis who dismembered a journalist acting as international mediators.
The parameters that have served us for decades to decode the world are no longer useful. Donald Trump's presidency has put an end to the political keys of the world that emerged from the fall of the Berlin Wall and also to the economic and commercial codes of the world of globalization.
For the moment, Europe has only managed to express its indignation like an elegant old lady surprised by the technical advances and bad manners of the United States: by calling the main countries to an unfruitful meeting in Paris.virtueEurope has found itself face to face with a highly stimulated Wolf of Wall Street. For those who have seen the film The brutalist, remember how the dignity of the Jewish cult protagonist meets in Carrara with the American builder who pays and humiliates it.
Peace in Ukraine cannot be signed between Putin and Trump by belittling either Ukraine or the European Union if it is to be solid, stable and lasting. Ending the war does not mean guaranteeing peace, and Europe knows very well the consequences of imposing a humiliating peace that will sooner or later turn into another war.
Three years after the invasion of Ukraine, on February 24, 2022, the Russian economy has resisted, but Putin's war cannot last forever. Russia occupies 19.2% of Ukrainian territory, whose casualties are estimated at 800,000 dead or wounded in its ranks. Of course the war must be stopped, but by negotiating and not by rehabilitating an expansionist Putin who invaded Ukraine and will not stop to reestablish the empire, endangering the eastern flank of Europe and, therefore, the stability of the Union.
Trump is right in one thing. When he tells Europe that it must take responsibility for its future. How? By building a federation that is reinforced by common fiscal and defence policies. More Europe is the only solution for European countries in the Trumpist jungle in which today the strongest, the richest and those willing to put on a permanent television show will survive.
That is why the German elections are so important. The Paris-Berlin axis has always been the European engine, but with Germany undergoing a deep crisis of its economic model and with the extreme direction also advancing in France, Europeanism is threatened. The results of the German elections, and in particular those of the Alternative for Germany (AfD), will determine how quickly Europe is built or broken up. They will determine whether European countries can borrow to arm themselves and at the same time maintain the viability of their welfare state.
Domestic Policy
With a new style of construction speculator, but in line with the Republican tradition that calls for taking real power back from Washington bureaucrats, Trump has also restarted the internal shake-up.
The safeguards to keep the Justice Department at a distance from political influence are falling at a rapid pace. For example, the Attorney General's Office has been required to drop corruption charges against New York Mayor Eric Adams, and according to the Washington Post Candidates for top intelligence and justice administration posts have been asked whether they support Trump's false claim that he won the 2020 election. The administration overhaul also appears to be turning into an ideological purge.
Trump has wiped out the values of the soft power The US has become a country focused on defending its commercial interests through coercion. Only the democratic strength of its institutions separates it from Russia or China for the moment. Nazi salutes from Musk and Bannon and chainsaws take care of the mass spectacle in the meantime.
The Europeans and the swimming pool
On August 2, 1914, Franz Kafka wrote in his diary: "Germany has declared war on Russia. In the afternoon, swimming lessons." Kafka could not even imagine the hell that would follow. We Europeans are obliged to remember and avoid the deconstruction of the European institutions that have strengthened our democracies, our economy and our peaceful coexistence. This is not the time to go to the pool.
