Aliança Catalana and Vox set the agenda
The latest CEO barometer is not just a blurry snapshot of the moment; it's a seismograph. And the seismic shift is clear: the far right—both pro-independence and pro-Spanish—is taking center stage in Catalan political debate. The simultaneous rise of Aliança Catalana and Vox is neither an accident nor a passing phenomenon: it's the consequence of a deep-seated discontent that traditional parties have thus far failed to manage.
The numbers are well-known. Aliança Catalana (AC)—until two years ago a fringe party, focused on identity politics and anti-immigration—has climbed to 19 or 20 seats, tying with Junts, which has plummeted, losing between 12 and 15 seats. Vox, for its part, has overtaken the PP and secured between 13 and 14 seats. The Parliament projected by the CEO would be the most right-leaning and polarized since the restoration of the Generalitat. Probably ungovernable.
The tie between Junts and Aliança Catalana is a warning sign for traditional sovereigntism. The rise of AC doesn't come from nowhere; it stems from an emotional split among pro-independence voters who no longer feel represented by the pragmatic, institutional politics of ERC or by the resistance-based approach of Junts. The pro-independence movement, which had been able to articulate an inclusive and cross-cutting narrative, has clearly lost the initiative and is unable to formulate a majority proposal.
Silvia Orriols doesn't have a comprehensive national project: she's selling anger. An anger directed primarily against immigration, and specifically against North African immigration, but also against the "political elites," against the "progressive consensus," and, ultimately, against the establishment itself. The vote for Aliança Catalana is a protest vote that operates within an emotional climate of exhaustion, frustration, and accumulated distrust. A vote of anger.
The parallel with Vox is evident. On the unionist blog, Vox also feeds on the idea that the political system has failed in managing security and coexistence. Both AC and Vox converge on the same narrative: that of fear, cultural threat, and rejection of diversity. The CEO shows that these discourses are no longer marginal: they are capable of challenging hegemonies and, above all, setting the agenda for the debate. European society, including Catalan society, is experiencing the consequences of a housing and labor market crisis that affects its purchasing power and erodes the social contract.
The PSC holds on as the leading party. Catalans are satisfied with the Isla government and prefer Sánchez in La Moncloa, but without any enthusiasm. ERC holds on, and Junts suffers its biggest defeat of the decade. The overall result is a fragmented Parliament where the extremes gain considerably while the center shrinks.
The key issue, however, is not just arithmetic. It is democratic. What happens to a society that normalizes proposals based on exclusion? What happens when political debate revolves around fear and not opportunity? What happens when distrust overcomes the civic bond that sustains pluralistic democracies?
The rise of the far right is not the cause, it is the symptom. The symptom of a political system that loses the capacity to be heard by a disillusioned and angry citizenry. The answer will not come from alarmist speeches or purely rhetorical cordons. The answer requires courage: courage to explain the complexity, to defend diversity, to offer tangible solutions and not just empty gestures.
The CEO warns. What all the parties do—or fail to do—in the coming months will determine the extent of the earthquake because it affects them all in some way. But it will depend especially on the evolution of Junts, which in the coming months will have to consider what proposals to use to confront the shift towards AC. The pro-independence center-right will have to decide—as some leaders acknowledge—whether to adopt positions like those of Portugal or Germany, blocking the path to the far right, or to follow the example of the PP in several autonomous communities: an approaching but losing the capacity to challenge the Congress of Deputies. The two factions of Junts, especially the more open Convergència and the more essentialist, are currently engaged in a power struggle ahead of the municipal elections. The outcome of this internal debate will determine how a very substantial part of society confronts the xenophobic tensions sweeping across Europe and threatening social cohesion. This cohesion fundamentally depends on the ability to implement policies that protect an equitable and just welfare state, and an inclusive society that grants rights and demands responsibilities from all its citizens.