Which European nations are most supportive of independence?

BarcelonaThe CEO's first barometer of the year confirmed that indicators related to the territorial debate in Catalonia are returning to levels prior to 2012. Support for Catalan independence has fallen below 40% for the first time in a poll, reaching its worst figure since 2011, the year before the start of the Process. Thus, 54% of Catalans would vote against breaking away from Spain today, the same percentage as in the November barometer, while 38% would vote in favor, two points less than four months ago.

No in a possible referendum has been imposed Yeah in all barometers for the past five years, and the distance between the two had never exceeded 11 points until last July, and had always moved between 47% and 52% since 2019. On the other hand, the Yeah It had been the majority option in some barometers for the previous four years—it hasn't gone above 45% for the last five years—and in October 2017 it reached an all-time high of 49%.

But what is the situation for the rest of Europe's stateless nations? Are they above or below Catalonia? The Principality is in second place, because Scotland leads the ranking, with a large advantage over the rest. Currently, 48% of Scots support full sovereignty, compared to 52% who oppose it. This is the conclusion of the May survey by the What Scotland Thinks organization, conducted by John Curtice of the University of Strathclyde in Glasgow, who is the leading specialist in demoscopy in the United Kingdom.

Unlike Catalonia, if we compare recent years, the percentage of Scots who support independence remains stable, ranging from 46% to 48% since the referendum in 2014. At that time, 53% refused to leave the Kingdom. Although there is no new referendum in sight, nor a roadmap, and the SNP also suffereda defeatUnmitigated by Labour in the general election, the Scottish independence movement maintains its vitality thanks to the support of young people, who, while not supporting secession in 2014, are now opting to oppose Brexit.

Growth in Northern Ireland and Wales

In third place is Northern Ireland. Support for Irish unity has grown significantly over the past three years, although a clear majority still favors remaining in the United Kingdom, according to the latest opinion poll by The Irish Times and the ARINS Project carried out during the second half of 2024. Thus, 34% of its citizens would vote in favor of Irish unity (i.e., in favor of Northern Ireland's independence from the United Kingdom), while almost half (48%) would vote against it.

The number of supporters of Irish unity has increased by seven points compared to the first year of the survey, in 2022, where they stood at 27% support. This is mainly explained by a sharp increase in the proportion of Northern Catholics who say they would vote in favor of a united Ireland, a figure that has risen from 55% in 2022 to 63% in 2024. However, almost a fifth (18%) of Northern Catholics are contradictory.

Northern Protestants remain strongly opposed to Irish unity, with 82% saying they would vote against it and only 7% in favor. However, northern Protestants have become more open to the proposal for a referendum, with 44% in favor and 37% against. This may be a result of "unionists' belief that they would win a referendum and therefore resolve the issue, at least for the time being." According to Quim Aranda, ARA's correspondent in the United Kingdom.

In Wales, pro-independence sentiment is also growing. On April 25, the ninth demonstration in favor of an independent state was held. Pro-independence mobilizations are fairly recent, and in fact, the first in Welsh history didn't take place until 2019. Despite historically being a minority movement compared to Scottish or Irish movements, Welsh sovereignty is enjoying a strong moment, and the last survey, in July 2008, placed the number of supporters in July of last year at just 2 young people.

The good health of the Welsh independence movement is demonstrated by the fact that, for the first time in a hundred years, a poll published this week indicated that Plaid Cymru, the main pro-independence party, is tied with the Labour Party and the far-right party led by Nigel Farage of Reform UK, one year before the French elections. Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth warned on Wednesday that, if they win in the first legislature, which lasts five years, there would be no referendum because "it doesn't make sense to do it only to lose."

The percentage is lower in the Basque Country, although it presents some variables worth taking into account. According to the Basque government's latest sociometer, presented in February, only 21% of Basques are in favor of independence, compared to 41% who oppose it, but a significant 33% condition their support on the circumstances.

Corsica and Flanders demand more self-government

In Corsica, few surveys are conducted on the subject, but the most reliable ones indicate that between 10 and 18% of Corsicans support independence, equivalent to the 15% achieved by the two pro-independence parties in the 2021 regional elections. A figure that André Fazi, professor of political science at Pascal Paoli University, told ARA could decrease due to demographic trends: "It's possible that the percentage will decrease overall due to the constant arrival of people from mainland France, while it will increase among people of Corsican origin."

If Emmanuel Macron's promise of greater autonomy, following the assassination of Yvan Colonna, a heartland leader killed in prison by a jihadist in 2022, is not fulfilled, Fazi warns that the independence movement could increase: "Institutional blockages, like institutional blockages,

In Flanders, supporters of independence make up 10% of the population, although a recent poll by a Flemish newspaper raised the figure to 40%. "All serious scientific surveys show that supporters of dividing Belgium are around 10%. Sometimes it is closer to 5%, and other times, 12-13%. "This is actually stable over time," counters Dave Sinard, a political science professor at the Free University of Brussels.

In fact, for the first time in history, Belgium has as its prime minister a Flemish nationalist leader, Bart De Wever, of the New Flemish Alliance (N-VA), a party that had championed Flanders' independence but has gradually shelved that demand in favor of more self-government, more self-government.