What can we expect from mortgages?

The data is grim. According to the financial association Asufin, only 14% of mortgages granted are for a primary residence, and 56% are used as an investment. Furthermore, nearly half of all purchases are made without any type of loan. As mortgage payers, what can we expect in the coming months?

The Euribor, the benchmark index for mortgage loans, has been on a downward trend since September 2023, when it reached highs above 4%. It's currently at 2.4%, which implies significant savings, but the forecasts for this year have worsened substantially for new mortgages. However, if you already have a mortgage from previous years, your payment will be reduced because the Euribor is lower than that of 2024.

The economy was calm, we had returned to growth with controlled inflation, and the ECB was willing to continue lowering interest rates, which were closely linked. Now, the trade war that has begun between the countries, and which is set to generate inflation again, seems to have changed plans. Two months ago, I would have recommended you start looking for mortgages if you were interested because the outlook was good. Now, however, the Euribor doesn't seem likely to drop much further during 2025.

What's more, analysts at various banks don't expect a Euribor below 2% even for all of 2026. What seems clear is that the negative Euribors we experienced before the pandemic. The best decision at that time was to take out a fixed-rate mortgage, but saying that now is very easy. Looking ahead, we'll have to wait for a period of decline to convert variable-rate mortgages to fixed-rate ones. Perhaps in the short term it will be somewhat more expensive, but over 15 or 30 years, there's no comparison.