Trump reconciles London and Brussels… to a certain extent

London / BrusselsThe landing of Donald Trump in the White House It has shaken the international order that emerged from the Second World War and the collapse of the Soviet Union. One of the many effects, evident from Westminster, has been the already perceptible rapprochement of London with Brussels and also Paris. immediately after Keir Starmer's election victory Last July, under the Labour government, Brexit isn't a source of enthusiasm. It wants to rebuild its relationship with the European Union and repair the wounds it left. But despite the complicity of recent weeks in the arms race to defend Ukraine and a Europe abandoned, or almost abandoned, by the United States, many rough edges remain unsmoothed. And they won't be easy to smooth.

In any case, five years after that acre separation, is Prime Minister Starmer reinventing the UK's position in Europe? "It seems that [the premier] is managing to play a leadership role. Relations have steadily improved since Boris Johnson was in Downing Street. It's a trend [since then], and Starmer has continued it," Anand Menon, a political scientist and professor at King's College and also director of the think tank UK in Changing Europe, a think tank that has closely analyzed the impact of Brexit.

According to Menon, "The EU is not normally the place where Europeans discuss the deployment of military power. And that has opened a path for the United Kingdom to be central." And despite the bromance that Macron and Starmer live as an example of the reunion between the EU and London, and Paris' support for the call of the premier to form a "coalition of the willing" to deploy a hypothetical peacekeeping force in Ukraine in the event of a permanent ceasefire –a possibility that Moscow does not accept–, it is paradoxically France that has always been the most skeptical about restoring ties with the United Kingdom. And it is calling for linking military rapprochement with other agreements on the negotiating table.

One of the most toxic issues for London may be the return of free movement between the United Kingdom and the EU for those under thirty, for a period of 48 months. Germany, France, and Spain are insistently calling for it. Fishing, and access for the French fleet in particular, but also for the EU fleet, to British territorial waters, is another highly sensitive issue. But any concession from London would be considered high treason by Brexiteers and Conservatives.

What does London want? Downing Street is seeking a new pact on food, animal and plant protection products, and agricultural goods, which would reduce the heavy red tape for British exporters to the EU and make food imports cheaper. It would also virtually end controls in the Irish Sea on imports entering Northern Ireland. The EU has similar agreements with Switzerland and New Zealand, based on the recognition of the same standards.

Labour is similarly interested in achieving quick economic gains with an energy deal, which could involve linking the UK and EU emissions trading systems, more investment in energy technology, and other joint energy projects. Another area of negotiation is a pact to allow touring artists and performers to visit the EU more easily, a circumstance that would require an exception to the Schengen agreement. Whitehall sources indicated months ago that the previous premierRishi Sunak was on the verge of closing it. But when Starmer came to power, the European Commission froze the negotiation the moment it realized it was a card they could play later. Now, for example.

Finally, there is the services chapter. An agreement on this matter is seen as the most difficult. London wants to achieve mutual recognition of professional qualifications to allow lawyers and financial services specialists to work in the EU. However, given that 80% of the UK economy is based on these services, and the EU has benefited from the migration of parts of certain financial firms' business to Frankfurt and Paris, there may be firm resistance from certain interest groups.

A tightrope walker on Downing Street

Starmer, then, is walking a tightrope these days, like a tightrope walker. He needs to rebuild relations with Brussels and achieve the aforementioned series of agreements that will improve a flat-line economy; he needs to strengthen security. Not coincidentally, for the first time after five years of effective Brexit, Starmer attended the European Council meeting on Monday, February 3, which focused on this area and on defense. Something that may experience similar episodes soon.

And, at the same time, Starmer must achieve the necessary economic rapprochement with Brussels without the Conservatives and Nigel Farage's far-right being able to accuse him of betraying "the will of the people," as the phrase used to refer to the 2016 EU membership referendum.

Furthermore, Starmer must remain close to an increasingly unpredictable Washington under Donald Trump in order to continue touting the "special relationship" between the United Kingdom and the United States. But this increasingly unequal relationship only seems to interest the US president when the monarchy welcomes him to Buckingham Palace with all the pomp and circumstance it can muster.

"Vital" Cooperation

Along the same lines, community leaders held a call with the premier the day after the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, announced her rearmament plan for Europe. They wanted to inform him firsthand. After the call, Council President António Costa asserted that the European Union intends to strengthen its alliances and forge new ones, especially in light of the US withdrawal. "Cooperation between allies is vital," the Portuguese insisted.

Von der Leyen, for her part, had assured the European Parliament that the rearmament plan aims to prioritize the purchase of weapons produced on the continent. Beyond the European bloc, she explicitly called for the intention to involve companies from the United Kingdom and, among others, Norway. It should also be remembered that the United Kingdom and France are the only nuclear powers on the continent. And Macron recently offered his nuclear umbrella in Europe as an alternative to what the Pentagon is offering.

However, Downing Street sources suggest that they hope to hold a summit with the EU in April or May to finalize the readjustment.