Together and the challenge of combating the extreme right
The CEO survey released this Thursday paints a political picture in Catalonia with only one substantial change compared to last year's election results: the significant growth of the Catalan Alliance, which is expected to rise from 2 to 8-10 seats, at the expense of Junts, which is expected to fall from its current 35 to 27-29. The emergence of the far-right pro-independence movement, following the rise of the pro-Spanish Vox party in the previous elections, currently represents the main challenge to the traditional democratic party system, which is receding in Europe and even around the world in favor of populist movements.
In the specific case of Catalonia, furthermore, the Catalan Alliance represents a comprehensive amendment to the grand principle of one people, which has been the basic pillar of Catalan nationalism since the waves of migration of the 1960s and 1970s. The independence movement championed its inclusive and open nature during the Process, and even organized. However, the failure of the independence bid has brought to light a reality that was hidden or secondary during the Process: the existence of an identity-based and xenophobic nationalism, which is now essentially Islamophobic.
This is no different from what happens in the rest of the countries around us, but in the Catalan case, it is particularly harmful because it breaks basic consensus and hinders both integration and coexistence. And in the long run, this could be lethal not only for the independence movement, but even for Catalan nationalism in general, since the Catalonia of the future will be formed by the children of today's immigrants, as current birth rates show. That purely Catalan Catalonia that some yearn for will never return, nor will the completely white European societies that the far right would like. And as the aphorism goes, "pure Catalonia is the main enemy of free Catalonia."
Although society as a whole must confront this phenomenon, from a political perspective, the greatest responsibility lies with Junts, which must decide what kind of relationship it wants with Silvia Orriols's party. The options are not many, and all have advantages and disadvantages. The first is to maintain the cordon sanitaire, as the German CDU does, and the second is to reach an agreement, as the PP does with Vox. The most recent experience, which is that of Spain, shows that Vox ultimately dragged the PP into its positions and distorted its character. Blaming the CEO's data, as Carles Puigdemont has done, will not absolve Junts of its future responsibility.
As for the rest of the data, there are no major changes. In any case, there is a slight rebound for ERC, which appears to have bottomed out on May 12 and could now aspire to gain up to three more seats. However, no one is threatening the PSC's top position, which, on the other hand, also appears to have reached its ceiling, as it hasn't surpassed its current 42 seats despite the generally positive opinion of Salvador Illa and the general approval of his government.
