Will the Cerdán case shake up the Catalan legislature?

BarcelonaThe name Salvador Isla appears in the audios that reveal a scheme to collect irregular commissions, and the opposition, especially the PP, has been quick to take advantage of this to try to corner the president of the Generalitat and implicate him in the entire scandal. The head of the Catalan government, however, has been quick to disassociate himself, especially on the issue of receiving commissions for the purchase of masks during the pandemic. He also asserted that he had "no fucking idea" who Chili was, the person with whom Koldo García claimed to have had conversations, according to the audio recordings. Despite exonerating Isla from any implications of the case, the government admits that the situation is complicated, both for the party and for the Spanish government, and that it has been a severe blow, an own goal. However, they also assert that the situation is not irreversible and that, in the case of Catalonia, governability is assured as long as the investiture commitments are met.

This week, the Socialists and Republicans tried to show that the transfer of the Cercanías (Commuter Rail) network, one of the agreements they reached to inaugurate Pedro Sánchez in 2023, is going ahead. Half a year late, both parties signed the constitution of the new operator, which should be operational early next year, while the process to transfer the first commuter rail line, the R1, continues. However, the flagship agreement reached by the ERC with the Socialists, the new financing model for Catalonia, is still stalled. Republican sources admit this, although Salvador Illa maintains that he will meet the planned schedule. "We are working with the idea of meeting the deadline," reiterate sources from the Economy Department.

June 30, the key date

The first date marked on the calendar for the singular financing was June 30th, when both parties were to present the details to begin implementing this new model in which Catalonia would collect all taxes—starting with personal income tax in 2026. And, to do so, they had to convene the Generalitat-State Bilateral Commission before the end of June, a meeting that sources consulted already rule out taking place within the planned timeframe. The expert report on the singular financing is also pending, and could be presented in the coming days.

The Esquerra party admits that the wake-up call they issued a few weeks ago The appeal to Finance Minister María Jesús Montero hasn't worked because the Socialists haven't gotten their act together. "When someone is more concerned about other issues than the financing of Catalonia, this bothers and worries us," lamented Republican spokesperson Isaac Albert last week in an interview on SER Catalunya. From their headquarters on Calàbria Street, they admit that negotiations have been broken off for several weeks and that the Cerdán case won't help them resume. The party led by Oriol Junqueras isn't considering raising the tone against the Spanish government over this case—as long as it doesn't get worse—but they do repeat the warning they've been issuing over the past few weeks: without progress on the financing model, there will be no 2026 budget. Not in the Generalitat nor.

The reaction to the PSC

The outbreak of the Cerdán case has fallen like a bucket of cold water on the PSC. Several Socialist leaders consulted by ARA admit to being bewildered and "embarrassed" by a scandal whose scope is still unclear, they acknowledge. The greatest fear is a possible indictment of the PSOE for illegal financing, if the judge finally finds some link between the nicking of the Transport scheme and the accounts of Sánchez's party. Despite emphasizing that for now there is no evidence to support this accusation, Socialist voices admit that this would represent a further escalation in a crisis that, for the moment, the party is limiting to "specific individuals."

But according to the sources consulted, the most widely held opinion is that Sánchez was right to act quickly upon learning of the UCO report and that he is right to hold out for the term now, because calling elections would probably be equivalent to handing over the keys to the Moncloa government to the PP and Vox and abandoning social measures and economic data. In Catalonia, they see the legislature as solid: "I think it doesn't affect Isla. The worrying thing is the years of wear and tear that remain until 2027, with the municipal elections," notes a regional Socialist leader. Another emphasizes that the image of "rigor" projected by the Catalan president can stem the ripple effect of the crisis in Catalonia.

Isla: "My party is the PSC"

In any case, pending the outcome of events, those on Pallars Street do not plan to distance themselves from Sánchez to contain the damage. Initially, Isla appeared at the Moncloa Palace this Friday, summoned by Sánchez in the midst of a crisis within the party, the same day that Civil Guard officers entered the Ferraz headquarters and the Transport Department to seize material related to the investigation (for example, Santos Cerdán's emails). The two leaders maintain close personal ties, beyond their political relationship. which has strengthened the symbiosis between the PSC and the PSOE.

However, Isla made it clear that, organically, the PSC and PSOE are two different parties. "My party is the PSC," he said during the control session in Parliament this week. He noted, minutes later, that the PSOE is a "sister" party. But not all PSC voters make such a clear distinction between the two parties when choosing their ballot. Already during the Catalan election campaign, Pallars admitted that Pedro Sánchez's presence after his five days of reflection provided a boost in the final stretch of the campaign, because it activated a portion of the Socialist electorate in Catalonia that usually tends to abstain in the Catalan elections, when the PSOE brand is not as prominent. And it is in this pool of supporters where they could find themselves with a reprimand vote, or an abstention.