The Vatican is heading towards the most unpredictable conclave

Francis died leaving a college of cardinals more polarized than ever, divided between members aligned with his reforms and a conservative minority.

View of Francis's tomb, which was opened to the public today in Santa Maria Maggiore in Rome.
27/04/2025
3 min

RomePope Francis's delicate health and speculation about a possible resignation, following in the footsteps of his predecessor, had recently led to an almost permanent state of pre-conclave in the Vatican. For months, a list of possible successors to the Argentine pontiff had been circulating. A list of papal candidates as broad as it was uncertain.

The outcome of the Conclave to elect the new leader of the Catholic Church – which will officially begin next week (May 5-10)– is therefore unpredictable; but the Vatican machinery It's already underway. Conservatives, progressives, traditionalists, reformers yes, but not too much... Francis died leaving a college of cardinals more polarized than ever, divided between members aligned with the progressive Church he promoted and a conservative minority, orphaned by the death of Benedict XVI, who want the new pope to bury the reforms promoted by the Argentine pontiff.

Throughout his 12 years of pontificate, Francis designed a new ecclesial geopolitics and also left as a legacy one of the largest (252) and most heterogeneous colleges of cardinals in living memory, in which almost 80% of the members were appointed by him. An assembly of bishops more international than ever, far from the centers of power, with cardinals from more than 70 countries, some coming from corners of the world hitherto unrepresented or where Christianity is practiced by a minority such as Algeria, Lesotho or Iran, and with a profile very similar to his own.

New faces for a rejuvenated college of cardinals, such as the Ukrainian Mykola Bychok, bishop of the Australian city of Melbourne, who at 45 will be the youngest papal candidate in the assembly after being ordained a cardinal in the last consistory. A title that until then belonged to the Italian missionary Giorgio Marengo, 51, apostolic prefect of Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia.

The problem is that many don't even know each other. Some probably met for the first time this week. Last Tuesday, the day after the Pope's death, the first congregation of cardinals was held, the assembly where they meet to decide the immediate steps after the pontiff's death, such as the date of the funeral. All the cardinals present in Rome participate, not just those with the right to vote (those under 80 years of age (133). And they are joining as they arrive: on Friday there were 149.

Their most immediate mission will be to decide the start date of the conclave, which should be held between 15 and 20 days after the pontiff's death and will be convened once the nine-day period of mourning following the Pope's death ends, which in this case will end on May 4, the so-called novenas.

But once Francis is buried, these absolutely confidential meetings (under threat of excommunication) become a kind of forum for reflecting on the future of the Church, the close profile of the close father... and starting to campaign.

Bergoglio was chosen three days before the conclave.

In reality, it is in these daily pre-conclave meetings, held in the synod hall, that the successor is elected. This is what happened last time. The decisive moment came on March 9, 2013, three days before the electors entered the Sistine Chapel. The then Archbishop of Buenos Aires, Jorge Mario Bergoglio, stood before his "brother" cardinals and read a brief speech that dispelled any doubts about his suitability. And, in the process, he outlined what would be the roadmap for his pontificate.

"The Church is called to go out of itself and go to the peripheries, not only the geographical ones, but also the existential ones," he asserted after scolding those present for the financial scandals and clerical sexual abuse that shook the Vatican during Ben's pontificate. The cardinals' interventions are confidential, but Francis's speech was leaked because Cuban Cardinal Jaime Ortega, impressed by what he had just heard, asked Bergoglio for the text.

"The discussion has just begun," said progressive Cardinal Reinhard Marx, former head of the German bishops, this week. rebels who challenged Francis to accelerate reforms such as priestly celibacy outside the Church of Rome. "But the conclave will only last a few days," Marx added. A prediction, or perhaps just an augury, which shows that when the master of papal liturgical ceremonies pronounces the Latin words extra omnes (everyone out) and the doors of the Sistine Chapel are closed, the decision will probably already have been made.

Thousands of people visit Pope Francis's tomb on the first day it is open to the public.

The day after Pope Francis's mass funeral and private burial at the Church of Santa Maria Major , his tombstone—bearing a simple inscription of his Latin name, Franciscus— was opened to the public for the faithful to visit . Thousands of people had already passed by the tomb this Sunday morning, under tight security. Police urged visitors to leave as soon as they had seen the tomb to keep the long queue moving.

At the same time, some 200,000 people gathered in the Vatican's Piazza Sant'Pere to attend a new ceremony in honor of the pontiff. This Sunday marks the second of nine days of official mourning for the Catholic Church worldwide. A large part of the crowd was made up of young people in Scouting uniforms or colorful T-shirts, part of delegations from all over Italy and other countries who had originally wanted to attend the ceremony to proclaim the first Catholic saint of the millennial generation. The event had to be suspended due to the pontiff's death and has been transformed into a new ceremony in homage to Francis.

Instead of honoring Carlo Acutis, an Italian boy who died of leukemia at age 15 in 2006, the gathered faithful honored Francis, who died at age 88 on April 21 after 12 years leading the Church. "Even having to change plans, it is a joy to remember Francis," Samuele Arregetti, an 18-year-old who had come from Bergamo, northern Italy, for the Mass, told Reuters. "We are very sad about his death, but now, thinking about him, we are also happy," he added. Shouts of "Long live Francis!" were heard from the crowd.

Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican's secretary of state, led the ceremony. In his sermon, he told the young people present that Francis would have liked to "meet you, look into your eyes, and pass among you to greet you." Parolin, considered one of the leading candidates in the papal conclave, gave a very brief speech of just 11 minutes and emphasized some of the central themes of Francis's papacy.

Attention now turns to who might succeed Francis. The secret conclave is unlikely to begin before May 6, and may not begin until several days later, giving the cardinals time to hold regular meetings to assess the state of the Church. The next meeting of cardinals, known as a "general congregation," will be held tomorrow morning, Monday, when they could set the date for the conclave.

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