The most universal conclave to elect Francis's successor begins without a clear favorite.

RomeIn Italy, there's a saying, perhaps too overused these days, that "whoever enters as Pope, leaves as Cardinal." It's such a popular proverb that Italians apply it to more secular matters, but it literally means that the cardinal who enters the Sistine Chapel as a favorite often leaves just as he entered, that is, as a cardinal. In reality, this isn't always the case. In 2005, after the death of John Paul II, one of the papal candidates was Joseph Ratzinger, prefect of Wojtyla's Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith. After his resignation eight years later, the election of Jorge Mario Bergoglio—who had stepped back from the conclave that elected the German pope—was, however, a surprise.

The archbishop of Buenos Aires convinced the cardinals with a five-minute speech in which he called for placing the "geographic and existential peripheries" of the world at the center of the Church, thus advancing what his papacy would be like. However, this time among the 133 cardinal electors who will meet this Wednesday to elect the new pope, there does not appear to be a name with the same charisma capable of achieving the necessary two-thirds majority (89 votes) in the first ballots.

The question that divides the cardinals, according to what has been leaked from the meetings, is whether Francis's successor should continue the reforms promoted by the Argentine pope or whether a shift is needed to return the Church to the doctrinal orthodoxy that conservatives yearn for. Just hours before the first smoke, the list of papal candidates is uncertain, and the predictions published by the specialized media (with their quotes: some rising, others falling) do not resolve the doubts.

Some names are repeated despite not, a priori, having any real chance of being elected. These are the so-called "kingmakers," influential cardinals capable of mediating and building consensus around a candidate, such as the German Gerhard Müller or the African Robert Sarah, leaders of the traditionalist movement that confronted Francis. And in the progressive camp, there are the Archbishop of Washington, Blase Joseph Cupich, a scourge of Donald Trump, and the Jesuit Jean-Claude Hollerich, Archbishop of Luxembourg.

Francesc designed a college of cardinals removed from the centers of power and with a profile very similar to his own: eight out of ten cardinal electors have been chosen by him. The result is a larger and more international assembly than ever, with cardinals from 71 countries, in which the presence of Europeans (53) has been reduced in favor of Asia (23) and Africa (18). However, Westerners monopolize the lists of papal candidates. "It will be the most universal conclave because the Pope appointed diverse people to give a voice to minorities within the Church. This will make it more difficult to reach a majority," Cardinal José Cobo, one of the four Spanish electors, acknowledged to ARA.

Some of the cardinals participating in the general congregations and passing through the entrance to the Synod's Aula Nova yesterday, trying to avoid journalists, confessed that they are still far from finding a name. "There's no rush for the white smoke, we're still getting to know each other," assured Cardinal Tarcisio Isao Kikuchi of Tokyo. But time is running out.

When this Wednesday at 4:30 p.m. the master of papal liturgical ceremonies pronounces the words in Latin Extra Omnas ("everyone out"), those not participating in the next conclave will leave the Sistine Chapel, and the doors will be closed. Inside, the cardinals will remain isolated from the world, praying and voting until they elect Francis's successor.

Pietro Parolin (Italy)

He is the bookmakers' favorite candidate, although in recent days his chances seem to have deflated after his clumsy handling of the Becciu case—the cardinal convicted of embezzlement and ousted by Francis—and an alleged distancing from the Pope during the last term. His almost nonexistent pastoral experience does not help either... Pietro Parolin (Vicenza, 70 years old) is a man of the Roman Curia. In 2013, the Pope appointed him Secretary of State, a position equivalent to that of Prime Minister, and entrusted him with the influential Vatican diplomacy. He was the architect of the controversial agreement between the Holy See and China in 2018, which was very poorly received by conservatives. Before becoming the number two of the Pope, participated in relations with Israel, North Korea, Mexico... and was ambassador in Hugo Chávez's Venezuela. In such a turbulent world—and such a divided conclave—his diplomatic experience and moderate approach could bring conservatives and progressives together.

Matteo Zuppi (Italy)

Don Matteo, as he is known by the retired priests with whom he lives in a nursing home in Bologna—reminiscent of the famous Italian television priest—is known for being a street priest devoted to the most vulnerable. As a member of the Community of Sant'Egidio, Matteo Zuppi (Rome, 69) gained extensive experience as a mediator, participating in peace agreements in Mozambique, Guatemala, and Burundi. In 2015, Francis appointed him Archbishop of Bologna and, four years later, cardinal. Considered a progressive, Zuppi defends the blessing of same-sex couples and does not rule out optional celibacy. As president of the Italian Episcopal Conference, in 2024 he mediated with Russia for the return of kidnapped Ukrainian children. However, his questionable handling of sexual abuse committed by priests—and a less ambitious report—could hamper his chances.

Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines)

Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle (Manila, 67) arrived at the Vatican in 2019 as prefect of the Congregation for the Evangelization of Peoples, formerly known as Propaganda Fide. Considered then Francis's successor, his star faded after the scandal over his questionable management of Caritas International, which he presided over until the Pope dismissed the entire leadership in 2022 following an internal audit that revealed allegations of workplace harassment. Despite this setback, he remains one of the most likely papal candidates. His origins also help: the Philippines is the country with the third most baptized Catholics (more than 80 million). Known as the Asian Bergoglio, he is charismatic and shares the Pope's progressive vision. With his mother of Chinese origin, he is considered the best bridge to the Chinese Catholic community, the next Pope's great challenge.

Jean-Marc Aveline (France)

The worst thing the Vatican's "curvy" officials have been able to say about the Archbishop of Marseille, Jean-Marc Aveline (Algeria, 66), in recent days is that he doesn't have a good command of Dante's language, something unthinkable from an Italian perspective for a future Pope and Bishop of Rome. An urban legend he debunked last Sunday while celebrating Mass in his Roman parish. The French cardinal is considered the most "Bergoglian" of the French prelates, partly due to his humble origins and concern for the "peripheries" of his diocese. He shares Francis's vision of welcoming immigrants and interreligious dialogue. But Aveline is more conservative when it comes to doctrinal reforms. He was one of the signatories of the communiqué of the French Episcopal Conference—which he has presided over since April—which emphasized that only homosexual persons, and not homosexual couples, could be blessed. In such a divided conclave, his candidacy could be an acceptable middle ground.

Robert Francis Prevost (USA)

There's an unwritten rule that a US cardinal cannot be elected pope because the Vatican must be able to act as a countervailing power to the world's leading power. But Robert Francis Prevost (Chicago, 69) could be the first to break that taboo. The American prelate spent many years as a missionary in Peru before joining the Curia as prefect of the influential Congregation for Bishops. His name has recently appeared among the papal candidates thanks to his discretion—he hasn't given any interviews—and impeccable record, although in recent days doubts have arisen about his involvement in the scandal involving the Peruvian ultra-Catholic group Sodalicio, which the Pope dissolved a week before his death. As a member of a divided US bishops' conference, his election could spur donations and, above all, serve as a buffer against the unpredictable Donald Trump.