The Generalitat lowers its forecast growth for this year by one tenth, to 2.6%.

BarcelonaSlightly lower growth. The Ministry of Economy forecasts that Catalonia's gross domestic product (GDP) will increase by 2.6% this year, one-tenth less than its estimate last October, but well above the rate of growth across the European Union (EU). These forecasts, which assume a slowdown of one percentage point compared to 2024, when the increase was 3.6% and GDP exceeded €300 billion for the first time, are included in the macroeconomic scenario for Catalonia 2025-2026, published this Thursday. For next year, the forecast is 2% and it is estimated that around 100,000 jobs will be created in the two years and that the unemployment rate will fall from 8.9% of the working population in 2024 to 8.5% this year, and 8.4% next year.

Although growth is significant and that In the first quarter, the year-on-year increase in GDP was 3.2%.Regarding the surrounding economies, "a certain slowdown is expected due to uncertainties in the global context and the normalization of figures after a period of very intense increases," according to the department led by Alícia Romero. The analysis by the Generalitat concludes that "the global economic context is characterized by significant uncertainty regarding the US government's tariff policy, its intensity, and its impact on global trade." The Barcelona Chamber of Commerce has declared that the tariffs will have an impact of around 1 billion euros on the Catalan economyAnd the Catalan Government has launched aid to alleviate its effects.

As a result of all this, "a slowdown in trade is expected, due primarily to the trade war between the world's two largest economies: the US and China." In any case, the Catalan economy continues to outperform its neighbors. In line with recent years, Catalonia's GDP continues to maintain a positive differential with that of the eurozone (expected growth of 0.8% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026, according to the IMF) and is in line with the Spanish economy, with forecasts of 2.5% and 1.8%, and two of 2.2% according to the Ministry of Economy.

Normalization of the growth rate

The Department of Economy expects a normalization of the GDP growth rate in the coming quarters, that is, "a gradual deceleration toward values closer to the potential growth capacity of the Catalan economy, in line with what is happening in the Spanish economy." And this normalization process is part of a context of maximum international uncertainty, which could accelerate this slowdown, it warns.

The GDP increase in 2025 (2.6% year-on-year) will be driven by the positive contribution of domestic demand (2.9 points), which will be the main driver of activity. Household consumption is expected to maintain its growth rate (3.5%), thanks to the positive tone of the labor market, sustained wage growth, and moderate prices. Year-on-year inflation stood at 2.1% in April, one-tenth below the national average (2.2%).

Public consumption growth will moderate to 2.9% in a context of budgetary extension and after a few years in which this component has played a significant role in GDP growth. Investment, meanwhile, will experience significant growth, 3.7%, thanks to improved financing conditions, low corporate debt, and support from the Next Generation funds. In any case, in the current context of uncertainty, "this is the component that may be most affected by the uncertainty of economic agents."

For its part, the contribution of external demand will be negative (-0.3 points), after four years of significant weight in the growth pattern. Exports are expected to grow by 1.8%, in a more unfavorable context due to the trade war. In contrast, imports will show a more significant increase, 3.8%, due to the strength of domestic demand.

Regarding the labor market, job creation will continue, but at a slower pace. Growth in full-time equivalent employment is projected to reach 1.6% in 2025, and the unemployment rate is projected to fall slightly to 8.5%. Growth is forecast to moderate to 2% in 2026, with more contained increases in household consumption (2.3%) and public administration consumption (1.8%). Investment is expected to maintain a strong, albeit somewhat more moderate, pace at 3.2%. Domestic demand will contribute 2 percentage points to growth, while external demand, despite improving compared to 2025, will remain negative (-0.1 points).