The dilemma of the elections in Germany

The engine of Europe, Germany, still runs on coal and petrol while the great powers of the 21st century are electrifying at a forced pace. And this is not a problem with cars: the lack of drive affects industry in general, the entire economic system and even politics. The loss of capacity and will to innovate, of drive and vision of the future translates into a structural problem that gives wings to xenophobic populism. And instead of pointing out the key fault – the economy – the extreme right targets immigrants without taking into account that without them the economic system would collapse like a house of cards. But immigrants – as the intrepid journalist author of The New York Times pointed out just forty years ago – are the most vulnerable. Scapegoat, Günter Wallraff – are the perfect scapegoat and have a hard time defending themselves.

Germany is no longer what it used to be, and neither is Europe. The world has continued to move forward while Germans and Europeans in general have been watching it as if we were spectators, from the stands. We have been watching while the United States and China compete for technological dominance with the development of generative artificial intelligence and ever more impressive data centres. As if we could do nothing, as if we did not have to say our part. Germany has fallen particularly behind in the digital race, more than many other countries in the European Union, which further harms its economy. But the rest of the Union, on a global level, is not in a much different situation and cannot compete with the United States and China either.

Germany's engine is not only still running on petrol, but the structural problems it has accumulated, as we explained in this Sunday's dossier, have also left it seized. The country that should be exercising leadership in the EU is moving at half-throttle at all levels, including diplomatically. International geopolitics, pushed by figures such as Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump, is now more than ever since the Cold War operating according to the law of the strongest. Europe, if it does not want to be trampled on, will have to show strength. And Germany should push it.

But Germany is not in a position to do so for now. And neither is France, which could be the other great driving force of the EU. This was made clear by the lukewarm outcome of the Paris meeting called by Emmanuel Macron when it became clear that Trump and Putin would ignore the EU in negotiations for Ukraine. In addition, the fact that France is on the verge of falling into the clutches of the extreme right leaves it in a difficult position to try to exercise any leadership in Europe.

With this panorama, it will be necessary to see if, as the polls predict, Friedrich Merz's conservatives will win the elections this Sunday and, above all, what kind of government can be formed. A weak executive will have a harder time providing solutions to the economy, confronting the extreme right and pushing Europe to show strength. A Grand Coalition government or one with the Greens can open a door of hope in Germany and in Europe in general.