Plot twist: The ball is now in Putin's court

The British weekly The Economist published an analysis on Sunday with a forceful headline: "Investors believe the war between Ukraine and Russia will end soon." The article asserted that this trend is already being felt in market dynamics and that the Russian economy is already preparing to once again attract large multinationals such as Coca-Cola, McDonald's, and Mastercard. Money is one of the few reliable indicators for interpreting the future, even in the times of Donald Trump, a lover of roller-coaster diplomacy.

Tuesday's agreement in Saudi Arabia sends the ball back into Russia's court. It's a significant turn of events: Trump had been insisting for weeks that Zelensky was the main obstacle to achieving peace. Now Washington is targeting Moscow: "If they don't [accept the agreement], unfortunately, we will know who the obstacle to peace is," said US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

Russian ultranationalist bloggers—and some members of parliament—have come out in force to say that signing the truce would be a step backwards. That Moscow cannot negotiate while there are still Ukrainian soldiers in Kursk. And that Russia must take advantage of the momentum who lives on the battlefield to gain even more territory.

But Putin may find reasons to give the green light to the ceasefire. The main one is purely strategic: accepting a short truce now—only 30 days, which is nothing in a three-year war—could put him in an even more powerful position when it comes to negotiating a definitive ceasefire. Putin doesn't want to miss out on the fruits of his most meritorious achievement so far: having his best ally in the White House. The second could be economic: Moscow has enough strength to demand in return, for example, the speeding up of diplomatic—and commercial—normalization with its friend the United States, and even the lifting of some sanctions. Investors would be happy.

And there's another reason to take into account: Putin has shown that he has experience in going back on what he's already agreed to and, therefore, breaking, at any moment, a ceasefire that seems, before it even begins, to be very fragile.