Super Sunday elections in Europe (which worries Brussels)

BerlinFrom Warsaw to Lisbon, via Bucharest, millions of Europeans are called to the polls this Sunday to decide the political direction of Romania, Poland, and Portugal. This Super Sunday The election is taking place amid strong geopolitical, commercial, and economic tensions on the continent, due to the Russian threat and the trade war declared by US President Donald Trump. Brussels remains on tenterhooks, especially to see if Bucharest will shift to the far right.

Romania's runoff election

All eyes will be on Romania, where amid the country's most serious political crisis in 35 years of democracy, the second round of the presidential elections will be held. Until 1990, Romania, today a member of the European Union and NATO, lived under the communist dictatorship of Nicolae Ceauşescu.

For years, nationalist populism, distrust of institutions, and foreign interference, both Russian and American, have caused deep political divisions in the country. However, in recent months the political crisis has worsened.

Domestically, this deep political crisis is compounded by growing economic problems: high inflation, high unemployment, and corruption. Externally, Romania is also suffering from tensions caused by the war in Ukraine and the Russian threat in Eastern Europe.

Romanians are returning to the polls after the results of the November 2024 presidential elections were annulled due to alleged Russian interference in favor of the first round winner, Calin Georgescu. The Constitutional Court banned him, for this reason, from running in the rerun election.

The ultra-nationalist and Eurosceptic George Simion will face off in this runoff against the mayor of Bucharest, Nicusor Dan, an independent center-left and pro-European candidate. In the first round, on May 4, Simion obtained 40.96% of the vote, while Dan obtained 20.99% of the vote. Everything indicates that the result of the runoff will be closer than initially expected.

Simion, leader of the Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR), presents himself as Georgescu's political heir. He is trying to attract the votes of those dissatisfied with the Romanian political class and the country's economic situation. "Romanians want change, and I represent that change," Simion asserts.

With a nationalist, ultra-conservative, and anti-Brussels populist message, Simion has reinforced his image as a Romanian Trumpist during this election campaign. He declares himself an admirer of Donald Trump and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. Simion has embraced Trump's conservative Make America Great Again movement and, imitating the US president's style, has proclaimed "Romania first."

The results of these elections will not only determine the future of Romania, but could also have consequences for Poland, Moldova, and Ukraine. A Simion victory could embolden Eurosceptics in these neighboring countries and weaken NATO's eastern flank. Romania has played a central role by supporting Ukraine after the Russian attack, but this could change if Simion wins the election. The ultra-nationalist candidate has promised that, if elected president, he will withdraw military support for Kiev.

First round of presidential elections in Poland

Meanwhile, Poland holds the first round of presidential elections this Sunday, with a possible runoff on June 1 to choose a successor to conservative-nationalist President Andrzej Duda.

Among the 17 candidates running in these elections, left-liberal candidate and mayor of Warsaw, Rafal Trzaskowski, is the favorite according to all polls. Conservative-nationalist candidate Karol Nawrocki, an independent but supported by Duda's Law and Justice (PiS) party, and far-right candidate Sławomir Mentzen will fight to advance to the second round.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who has led a pro-European center-left government since December 2023, is confident that Trzaskowski, the candidate of his Civic Platform party, will win. Tusk is seeking to overcome the veto-wielding president Andrzej Duda has imposed on his bills from the presidential palace.

Early elections in Portugal

The Portuguese are returning to the polls in early elections following the fall of Prime Minister Luís Montenegro's government. Montenegro is going losing a vote of confidence in Parliament in March over alleged conflict of interest allegations related to his family-owned consultancy Spinumviva, which counts companies with government contracts among its clients.

Sunday's elections could produce similar results to the previous ones. Montenegro, leader of the center-right Democratic Alliance party, is the favorite. Following behind would be Socialist candidate Pedro Nuno Santos, while the Portuguese far-right populist party Chega (Enough, (in Spanish) by André Ventura would remain in third position, after his candidate suffered serious health problems during the electoral campaign.