Trump's peace plan outrages Zelensky and satisfies Putin

MoscowDonald Trump's rush to reach a peace agreement in Ukraine before April 30, when his presidency will reach 100 days, is accelerating events with uncertain outcomes. Vladimir Putin insists on being cautious about the US plan, while Volodymyr Zelensky sees many of the proposals as unacceptable.

The ball is in the White House's court, which has the power to tear up its cards and abandon mediation if it sees any of the parties thwarting the pact. The visit to Moscow of Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff, who met for three hours with the Russian president, demonstrates the US urgency in the face of an interlocutor for whom time is on their side and who until now has weathered any inconvenient initiative by demanding all kinds of preconditions.

Now, however, Trump's latest statements and the draft proposal leaked to the press present a scenario that, tactically, is much more acceptable to Russia than to Ukraine. In an interview in the magazine TimeThe US president has directly stated that "Crimea will be Russian" and that "Zelensky understands that." Regarding the remaining occupied territories, the US plan published by Reuters recognizes de facto Russian rule up to the front line, which accounts for a fifth of Ukraine. In return, Putin would not claim the unconquered areas of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia provinces and would withdraw from the Kharkiv region. He would also have to return control of the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant, which would remain on Ukrainian territory but under US administration.

Ukraine and the European Union want to postpone any territorial discussions until after a ceasefire. But Zelensky reiterated this Friday that he will not accept any territorial cessions. "Our position has not changed: only the Ukrainian people have the right to decide which territories are Ukrainian," he said in a meeting with journalists. "The Ukrainian constitution states that all temporarily occupied territories belong to Ukraine, to the people of Ukraine," he insisted.

He said this after statements by Kiev Mayor Vitali Klychko in an interview on the BBC, in which he opened the door to "giving up territories" to end the war. Later, seeing the impact of his words, he clarified that any territorial renunciation "contradicts national interests" and that "we must fight against its implementation to the end." The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry has also taken a position on the mess: the loss of Crimea and the occupied provinces is "unacceptable" and Ukraine "will not accept any veto" on joining NATO.

However, Trump insists that Ukraine will "never" be part of the Atlantic Alliance and that Zelensky's desire to join is what caused the war. In fact, in an interview on CBS, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov applauded the US president as "the only leader who understands the root causes" of the conflict. Lavrov also said that Russia is "ready for an agreement" but that "some elements need to be fine-tuned." Upon leaving the meeting with Witkoff, one of those present, presidential advisor Yuri Ushakov, described it as "constructive" and explained that the two countries had "brought their positions closer together."

Ukraine's protection is key

Among Putin's most pressing concerns is the protection of Ukraine. Trump's proposal envisions a "solid security guarantee" for Kiev, provided by European countries and other volunteer states. Zelensky needs to ensure defense capabilities and is therefore proposing to include the United States in an "Article 5-like agreement," referring to NATO's mutual defense clause. Moscow, on the other hand, makes it clear that the presence of foreign troops on Ukrainian soil is a red line.

Furthermore, according to Bloomberg, the United States will also ask the Kremlin to recognize Ukraine's right to maintain an army. This contradicts one of Putin's stated goals when he launched the invasion in 2022: the "demilitarization" of Kiev.

On the economic front, the US document advocates lifting sanctions against Russia imposed since 2014, while Ukrainians and Europeans favor a "gradual" easing once a "sustainable" peace is achieved. Since the negotiations began, the Kremlin has unsuccessfully sought to have sanctions lifted on the export of agricultural products and fertilizers, and on the aeronautical sector.

A Russian general was assassinated.

As Trump's envoy landed in Moscow, a Russian lieutenant general, Yaroslav Moskalik, was killed by a car bomb in the city of Balashikha, just outside the Russian capital. The senior commander of the general staff was at his home, according to Russia's Investigative Committee. Moskalik was deputy chief of the Russian Armed Forces' operations command and had participated in several high-level Russian delegations.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova has already accused the Ukrainian secret services of being behind it and linked it to an effort to hinder negotiations. "Kyiv is betting on escalation and irresponsibly ignoring constructive proposals aimed at finding a peaceful solution," she said.

For now, Ukraine has not claimed responsibility for the attack, unlike in December of last year, when it did acknowledge the murder of another lieutenant general, Igor Kirilov, head of Russia's radiation, chemical and biological defense, in a bomb attack as he left his house.