In just over two months, pacifism seems to have ceased to be an option in Europe. For the moment, at least, the voices that propose some kind of alternative to the option of rearmament after the imminent withdrawal of the United States and the Russian threat are in the minority. The change seems to have been sudden, but, in reality, we had been warned for some time. In Trump's first term, the increase in military spending by NATO countries was already on the table, and the American president continued to warn during the re-election campaign that he was not willing to continue taking charge of European security. In the EU, of course, they did not expect that it would suddenly side with Russia in the Ukrainian war, but the warnings were already sufficiently alarming to have prepared the European strategy in advance, and also to have opened the citizen debate that would allow a better understanding of the different positions.
Be that as it may, the rearmament plan agreed upon now involves the mobilization of some 100,000 members of the European Union. 800 billion euros that would emerge from the relaxation of fiscal rules and the EU's guarantee of defence loans in member states. Yesterday, at her press conference to review the first 100 days at the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen opened the doors to include other measures alternatives to ensure the financing of the new European defence alone. As Andreu Mas-Colell explained yesterday in Debat, The most logical initial option would be to facilitate borrowing, but in the medium term it will certainly be necessary to increase taxes to ensure investments, and everything will depend, he recalled, on whether what is done is to reinforce the deterrent capacity of the EU, with the prospect of a latent conflict that does not reach direct confrontation, or whether it is finally necessary to enter into combat. At this point, the issue of the return of military service is beginning to be opened in some countries.
According to what the Spanish Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez, said yesterday at a rally in Galicia, Spain is currently considering increasing spending on all defensive matters, which means, for example, more investment in artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, civil protection or the fight against Islamism. These are areas in which it will surely be able to obtain the support of the investiture partners who are most reluctant to increase military spending, while at the same time allowing it to show its European partners that it is spending a lot on investments that it would surely have made anyway. We will see if the strategy finally works for it both within – the PP has already complained about not having it as its main interlocutor – and outside, where they will possibly demand a greater increase than what it has been saying until now. It will not be easy for it.
However, it seems that everyone takes the break-up of NATO for granted – to Putin's satisfaction – and the European citizen has been denied the possibility of having a somewhat calm debate on the new rearmament. There may be a fair amount of consensus on the need to secure European defence, but there is no time now for cold-blooded talk about what kind of rearmament is necessary, how, or against whom we are defending ourselves.
