Putin has the wind more at his back than ever thanks to Trump's push

MoscowNot even the most fervent acolytes of the regime could have imagined a few months ago that, at this point in the film, Things would look so good for Vladimir Putin. Since the special military operation that was supposed to be successful in three days turned into a war of attrition that has lasted for more than three years, Russia has seen its status as a world power fade away. The aggression against Ukraine led to its total isolation from the West, a wave of sanctions and the flight of European and American companies, and forced The Kremlin seeks shelter from China. Putin admitted de facto pariah status and was forced to concentrate all its efforts on a war that was very difficult to win. Until Donald Trump came to the White House.

With one phone call, the US president blew up the global balance of power and restored his theoretical greatest enemy. Putin did not miss the opportunity to leave ostracism: he accepted the invitation to sit again at the table of the elders, determined to hold on to the chair, and found that, suddenly, the wind was blowing in his favor again.

Before Trump's emergence on the scene, Russia could hope for a dignified exit from the Ukrainian quagmire at best: trying to maximize gains on the ground, minimize concessions and sell it as a success. Now Washington not only does not consider Moscow guilty of the war, but places it as part of the solution and accepts its demands for a ceasefire. What's more, it offers Putin the chance to regain his lost place in the world. The spoils of war are no longer the only priority; peace is the pledge to return Russia to its rightful place. "The main result of the negotiations cannot be just the end of the conflict, but the reconfiguration of the entire system of international relations," the official newspaper sums up. Izvedia.

Kremlin sources explain in the Kommersante They are in no hurry to conclude the talks. They did not expect to find themselves in such a favourable position and now it is necessary take advantage of the moment to squeeze out all its juice. The long-awaited Trump-Putin meeting is therefore not expected to take place immediately. State television is full of joy: "Everything is now being decided in the great triangle Russia-China-USA; within this framework the new construction of the world will bear fruit. The European Union no longer exists as a united political force," they told the news programme this week. Meanwhile, the Kremlin congratulates the new US administration for having changed its foreign policy "so quickly". towards a vision that "largely coincides" with that of the Russian government.

No incentives for peace

But what incentive does Putin have to seek peace if the United States withdraws support for Ukraine? Igor Naymuixin, a journalist for the Russian state news agency RIA Novosti, expresses his bewilderment: "On the one hand, Trump talks about peace and politicians around him say that they are interested in Ukraine's success, but on the other hand, Washington seems to be bewildered." They are giving Russia all the cards to achieve victory on the battlefield"The Russian president feels strong and has therefore made it clear that he has no intention of making concessions.

Until now, Trump has emboldened him by accepting as a starting point that it is difficult for Ukraine to recover the occupied territories (also the annexed Crimea) and impossible for it to enter NATO. It is Russia that claims that they are the ones who most want peace. Thus, if the talks fail, Washington will blame Kiev and allow the war to continue. Foreign affairs, A peace on Russia's terms would amount to a "capitulation" of Ukraine. He warns that an agreement that marginalizes the attacked party "would validate aggression as a legitimate strategy" and that if the Kremlin gets its way after achieving very limited successes on the battlefield "only because of a sudden change in US policy", it will alter global security "in a dangerous way". This is precisely what Putin is seeking when he calls for a "safe" peace for Russia: achieving the division of NATO and moving Europe away from its borders.

Russia's future at stake

Russia's slowness in approaching negotiations is also explained by prudence. Despite the The Kremlin was satisfied with the rapport between Trump and Zelensky, government sources admit to Moscow Times They are worried that the tension between the United States and Ukraine will undermine the agreement between Moscow and Washington. At stake is not only peace and international status, but also the lifting of sanctions at a very delicate moment for the Russian economy. Putin has skillfully presented the rapprochement with the historic enemy, now a "partner", as a business, but mistrust towards the American counterpart persists, as shown by the fact that on Friday Trump again threatened the Kremlin with more sanctions if they do not work towards a ceasefire. Analyst Anton Barbashin warns the exultant propagandists: "I was also excited in 2016 and it did not end well."

Vladimir Putin's immanence in power gives him a perspective of the future that is unusual for democratic rulers. He has seen five US presidents parade and has seen that, from one day to the next, the wind went from blowing in his favour to blowing against him. Now, Russia is experiencing its best moment in three years, but it is neither declaring victory nor changing its military rhetoric, and even less stopping its repression.

On February 23, Defender of the Fatherland Day, the eve of the third anniversary of the start of the invasion of Ukraine, the Russian president insisted that it was time to rearm in order to "guarantee the future security" of the country. Professor Yuri Zhdanov, an expert in international relations, expressed it in less prosaic but much cruder language: "The blood already shed by our soldiers should not be in vain; we know how to win wars, but sometimes we manage to lose the peace."