Putin has lost 400,000 soldiers for conquering 1% of Ukraine.

MoscowDuring talks between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul last Friday, The head of the Kremlin delegation challenged Kiev's representatives: "We are ready to fight for a year, two, three... as long as it takes. How long are you prepared to fight?" Vladimir Putin's army is sacrificing more and more men at the front for ever-smaller territorial gains, and the Russian president hopes to maintain the pace of new volunteers to eventually defeat Ukraine in a war of attrition.

According to US government data published by theNew York TimesDuring 2024, Russia suffered 400,000 casualties, including dead and wounded. This allowed it to conquer barely 1% of Ukraine's surface area, according to military analysts at the Institute for the Study of War. Specifically, 4,731 square kilometers, the equivalent of the regions of Osona, Bages, Berguedà, and Solsonès combined—to put it in perspective, Ukraine is 19 times larger than Catalonia. That is, each square kilometer occupied had a human cost for Moscow's troops of 84 casualties.

The invasion of Ukraine has already resulted in the highest number of Russian military casualties since World War II. By January, in nearly three years of conflict, at least 172,000 soldiers had died on the front lines and 611,000 were wounded, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). Furthermore, British intelligence estimates that 2025 could end up being the deadliest year for Putin's forces.

The Russian army continues to advance and threaten strategic Ukrainian enclaves, such as the city of Pokrovsk in Donetsk and Kupiansk in Kharkiv. However, it is not advancing at the speed it expected in the fall of 2024 and, moreover, is now paying a higher price. While in November it occupied 722 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory and recorded 45,000 casualties (62 per square kilometer), in April it needed 36,600 dead or wounded soldiers to conquer 175 square kilometers (209 casualties per square kilometer).

According to Forbes, with the current projection, The Russian army would take 231 years to occupy all of Ukraine, at a cost of 101 million deaths in its ranks. Therefore, despite Putin's claims to want peace, efforts to recruit new troops not only continue unabated, but have actually increased, with substantial financial incentives. Recently, the Russian president reported that between 50,000 and 60,000 citizens voluntarily enlist each month.

Suicide tactics

At this point, on the Ukrainian front, a tank is more valuable than a human life. Since last November, Russia has restricted the use of armored vehicles in assault operations because they were running out due to Kiev's drones. The solution, sending motorcyclists towards enemy trenches with the aim of breaking through their defenses more quickly and, at the same time, save tanks.

Since the first attempts over a year ago, most motorcycle attacks have ended in failure because many of the drivers die before reaching the Ukrainian lines. However, for the high command, the cost-benefit ratio is positive, and they plan to deploy this system along the entire front line.

The shortage of heavy weapons is another threat to Putin's strategy of attrition. According to IISS calculations, Russia has until the end of 2025 to replace tanks destroyed or captured in combat. Thanks to increased production and the re-equipment of older vehicles from the Soviet arsenal, (the most numerous during the May 9th parade)Moscow can still sustain the current rate of losses, but it will become increasingly difficult.

So, given the evidence that a total military defeat of Ukraine is impossible in the short term, why not negotiate a ceasefire? According to analyst Tatiana Stanovaia, Putin's intention is to make the Ukrainians accept that they "cannot win," that Moscow is willing to "persevere regardless of the cost of war" because for them it is "an existential conflict." This, in her view, should convince them to surrender.

But just as the Russian president doesn't want to give in, neither does Volodymyr Zelensky. Hence the lantern is aimed more at Donald Trump than at the Ukrainians. The US president has already expressed on several occasions his belief in Russia's military superiority, and with this argument, he could force the Ukrainian leader to negotiate an agreement close to capitulation, or, if he refuses, he could leave him in the lurch.