Pietro Parolin, the mediating cardinal who could bring conservatives and progressives together.

RomePietro Parolin has so far been considered the favorite to succeed Pope Francis and the candidate with the ability to mediate between the most conservative and most progressive sectors. Appointed by Pope Francis as Secretary of State of the Vatican in 2013, he received the cardinal's hat a year later. In practice, he was more of a prime minister of Francis. A skilled and discreet diplomat, his role was key in the historic 2018 agreement with China that allowed the joint appointment of bishops after Beijing broke off relations with the Holy See in 1951.

Vicenza, in northern Italy. He entered the seminary at 14, but by six he was already playing at saying Mass from the balcony of his house. At 25, he was ordained a priest, and three years later he entered the Pontifical Ecclesiastical Academy, where he began his career in the Roman Curia, the central government of the Catholic Church.

In 1986, he joined the Holy See's diplomatic service and worked in Nigeria, Mexico, and Israel, among other destinations. These intense years led him, for example, to be part of the Vatican delegation sent in 1993 to Rwanda devastated by civil war. Pope Benedict XVI appointed him apostolic nuncio, a kind of ambassador, to Hugo Chávez's Venezuela, where he developed a deep understanding of the Church and Latin American reality. It was then that Bergoglio called him back to Rome.

During these twelve turbulent years, he has had to mediate, unsuccessfully, between Russia and Ukraine, and strike a balance to maintain the fragile diplomatic relations with the United States during Donald Trump's first term. One of his last meetings was with the number two in the White House, JD Vance, who visited the Vatican during Holy Week and was received by the pontiff shortly before delivering his final address. urbi et orbi.

Parolin is not a Bergoglian, but rather a moderate reformer

Despite being chosen by Pope Francis, Parolin is not exactly a Bergoglian, although he has always maintained impeccable loyalty to the Argentine pontiff. He is considered a moderate progressive, but in the past he had been critical of the blessing of same-sex couples, a reform that was rejected by all the African bishops as a whole. "The Church must be open and attentive to the signs of the times, but it must also be faithful to the Gospel," he stated in an attempt to sidestep the controversy. He was less subtle when he described the 2015 referendum that legalized same-sex marriage in Ireland as a "defeat for humanity."

It is precisely this dual dimension, reformist but without straying too far from Catholic orthodoxy—one of the most common criticisms of Francis—that gives Parolin's candidacy as the future Bishop of Rome added strength. Furthermore, he is a man known by everyone within the College of Cardinals, and he himself knows the vast majority of the electors. Knowing the members of the College of Cardinals is especially important in a conclave that will be the largest (133 electors) and most heterogeneous (71 countries) in living memory. It will also be one of the most divided, with opposing cardinals who, sooner or later, will have to compromise to reach the 89 votes needed to elect the next Pope. Parolin seems to be the only acceptable option for the majority, but the handling of the Becciu case could harm him.

The Sardinian cardinal was convicted of corruption and embezzlement of funds from the Secretariat of State, which Parolin headed at the time and where Becciu acted as second-in-command. In 2020, Pope Francis forced him to resign as prefect of the Congregation for the Causes of Saints and to renounce his cardinal rights, including the right to participate in a future conclave. However, Becciu insisted that this decision had never been legally formalized and claimed that the Pope had forgiven him.

To avoid future challenges to the conclave, the cardinals had opted to allow Becciu to attend the general congregations, but his name was not among the electors. However, according to several Italian media outlets, it was Parolin himself who, unexpectedly, presented two previously unknown typed letters signed by Francis—the last one signed the day after he left the hospital—in which the Pope explicitly demanded Becciu's exclusion from the conclave. An unexpected twist that has shattered Becciu's aspirations, but calls into question the diplomatic qualities of the hitherto favorite to occupy the throne of Sant Pere.