The National Rally had already warned: "If Marine Le Pen were declared ineligible, we would reach an unprecedented level in the government of judges." Indeed, as soon as we left the Palace of JusticeThe boss had already spoken of "a very violent attack on democracy," always arguing that the only legitimacy is that which emanates from the sovereign people, who, it must be said, have never granted her access to power until now. Thus ends—unless a potential appeal saves the doomed woman—the Le Pen lineage that has led the French far right since Jean-Marie, Marine's father, challenged Gaullism.
Nicolas Sarkozy, also facing judicial problems these days, was supposed to be the great modernizer of the French right, and one term did just enough to put an end to a spectacular fiasco. A few years later, Marine Le Pen took advantage of the disarray on the right and the decline of the left and even became a candidate against Macron. Another dazzling figure who lost her way after one term. And in her disarray, she called elections in 2024 that shattered the liberal right while Le Pen grew. to the rhythm of the European radical right And the arrival of the Trump moment generated expectations for her towards the Élysée.
Proof of the general bewilderment in France is the reaction of Prime Minister François Bayrou who, with a gesture unbecoming of his responsibility, has come out to speak of an "unfair accusation." This is yet another expression of the deteriorating state of the French right, extremely fragmented by Macron's failed leadership and incapable of finding a shared direction, condemned to a string of minority governments.
Despite some predictions, it is not evident that Le Pen had the presidency within her grasp in a couple of years. Despite the fact that she remained the candidate "taking into account that she had not decided that there would be another," she has been placing Jordan Bardella as a potential replacement. However, this is a more ideological and less empathetic figure, lacking Le Pen's natural communicative ability, and it doesn't seem like the replacement will be automatic. And it's likely that Marine Le Pen will continue to set the pace, even though the accusations that led to her conviction are perfectly proven. She maintains her status as a parliamentarian and will surely continue to set the course until the relevant appeals are heard.
In any case, Le Pen's conviction culminates. the crisis of French politics, accelerated at the start of Macron's second term, which has seen his majority crumble as votes shift to the right and left. And France remains in a confusing political period with an unpredictable outcome, while Macron, removed from everyday politics, seeks to make a name for himself—with the help of Britain's Starmer and Germany's Merz—while dealing with threats from Trump and Putin. Will the French right be able to capitalize on the National Regrouping scare, or will they allow citizens to buy into the far-right's outrage against "the government of judges"?
