Keys to Ukraine negotiations beyond minerals: Trump dances to Putin's tune

MoscowThe unexpected willingness of the United States to bless Russian maximalist positions in ceasefire talks in Ukraine The Russian president has already tipped the scales before the start. Vladimir Putin is emboldened and has no incentive to make concessions until negotiations are fully underway. That is why he has kept the main conditions he set last June to stop the invasion almost intact: the annexation of the four occupied Ukrainian regions and the international recognition of Crimea as Russian territory; that Ukraine does not enter NATO under any circumstances and becomes a neutral state; and that it is demilitarized and no foreign troops are deployed to guarantee its security.

Volodymyr Zelensky, who defends the exact opposite, suddenly finds himself having to prepare to play a game with marked cards. The ally gets along with the enemy and abandons the role of protector to adopt that of partial referee and potential plunderer of natural resources. Hence, the Ukrainian president has been forced to try desperate coups like now the offer to resign in exchange for his country joining NATO and the acceptance that The United States exploits much of its natural resources.

All this, in front the impotence of a European Union which is trying to defend its own interests and those of Ukraine while noting that the United States and Russia have little interest in inviting it to the negotiating table.

NATO membership is a red line

One of the weakest points for Zelensky is Ukraine's accession to the Atlantic Alliance. Russia has made it clear, both actively and passively, that this is a red line and that a "cast iron" international commitment will be necessary to guarantee that it is not crossed. The new US government respects this, arguing that Ukraine's entry into NATO is "unrealistic." Not even the European Union is rowing in tandem in favour of Ukraine's demand: the countries geographically closest to Russia, those that fear a possible military aggression from the Kremlin, such as Poland, Romania, Slovakia, the Czech Republic or the Baltic States, are in favour. But the important allies have been putting off the Ukrainian president for some time. As Joe Biden had also said, they all quietly declare that Ukraine's future requires integration into NATO, but they avoid setting a date for it out of desperation on the part of Zelensky.

The occupied regions

The Ukrainian leader also has a bad piece of work in the making when it comes to recovering The four provinces annexed by Russia during the war, in addition to Crimea. The Kremlin claims sovereignty over these territories (Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson) as an almost existential element, although some areas have not yet been fully conquered. The United States buys into part of the story to the point of voting in the UN in favor of a resolution that does not respect Ukrainian territorial integrity.

The US government also considers that it is not "realistic" for Zelensky to intend to recover the borders prior to 2014, before the annexation of Crimea and the war in Donbas, because this "would only prolong the conflict and increase the suffering." The only ace that the Ukrainian president has at the moment in the negotiations is the portion of Russian territory that it still controls in Kursk.

Peacekeeping troops in Ukraine

Where there is more quorum between Ukraine, the United States and Europe is in the deployment of peacekeeping troops on the ground. Although Trump has assured that he will not send any American soldiers, he is in favour of European countries doing so. He has even gone so far as to say that Putin is in agreement. However, the Kremlin has categorically denied this and has insisted that the presence of armed forces from NATO countries in Ukraine, even under national flags, is "unacceptable" to Russia. In any case, Europe is still far from specifying what this military deployment could mean. States such as the United Kingdom, Sweden or the Netherlands are willing, while, at first, others such as Germany or Spain are more refractory.

The plundering of rare earth metals

One of Trump's recurring justifications for stepping back from Ukraine's defence is the economic cost. The United States wants to cash in on its support for Zelensky, and that is why they are about to sign an agreement to exploit Ukraine's rare earth metals and other natural resources, a gesture that is interpreted as a prequel to the negotiations.

And here, Putin, who is an old hand and is credited with the ability since the days of the KGB to sense his adversaries and exploit their weaknesses, has decided to tempt the American president with a counteroffer. He assumed that Trump acts like a businessman and proposed to jointly exploit Russia's rare metal deposits, including those found in the occupied Ukrainian territories. Resources, by the way, controlled since the beginning of the war by the state corporation Rosatom, in the hands of a close friend of Putin, Yuri Kovalchuk. The Russian president's courtship is so blatant that, for the first time in a long time, he has referred to Trump and American companies, until recently representatives of the quintessentially "unfriendly" country, as "partners."

Vladimir Putin, then, is getting people to dance to his tune before the music is even playing. Nor has the United States been forceful in defending Europe's participation in the talks, although Donald Trump has ended up admitting that they should be there. A lukewarmness that has strengthened Russia, which maintains that European leaders are not in a position to demand anything. The Kremlin not only sets the agreements, but also the tempo: it is in no hurry to conclude the negotiations in the face of a Trump eager to take credit, a dislocated European Union and a Ukraine that sees its survival in danger. On the score, Russia has no intention of giving in on anything; we will have to see what happens when it starts playing in the orchestra.